A Global Model for Bankruptcy Prediction

The recent world financial crisis has increased the number of bankruptcies in numerous countries and has resulted in a new area of research which responds to the need to predict this phenomenon, not only at the level of individual countries, but also at a global level, offering explanations of the c...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PloS one 2016-11, Vol.11 (11), p.e0166693-e0166693
Main Authors: Alaminos, David, Del Castillo, Agustín, Fernández, Manuel Ángel
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Accounting
Accuracy
Americas
Asia
Banking
Bankruptcy
Bankruptcy - economics
Biology and Life Sciences
Computer and Information Sciences
Economic aspects
Europe
Financial crises
Forecasts and trends
Information theory
International aspects
Mathematical models
Methods
Models, Theoretical
Neural networks
People and Places
Physical Sciences
Predictions
Regression analysis
Research and Analysis Methods
Social Sciences
Studies
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Summary:The recent world financial crisis has increased the number of bankruptcies in numerous countries and has resulted in a new area of research which responds to the need to predict this phenomenon, not only at the level of individual countries, but also at a global level, offering explanations of the common characteristics shared by the affected companies. Nevertheless, few studies focus on the prediction of bankruptcies globally. In order to compensate for this lack of empirical literature, this study has used a methodological framework of logistic regression to construct predictive bankruptcy models for Asia, Europe and America, and other global models for the whole world. The objective is to construct a global model with a high capacity for predicting bankruptcy in any region of the world. The results obtained have allowed us to confirm the superiority of the global model in comparison to regional models over periods of up to three years prior to bankruptcy.
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0166693