Virtual World Currency Value Fluctuation Prediction System Based on User Sentiment Analysis

• Published in: PloS one 2015-08, Vol.10 (8), p.e0132944-e0132944
• Main Authors: Kim, Young Bin, Lee, Sang Hyeok, Kang, Shin Jin, Choi, Myung Jin, Lee, Jung, Kim, Chang Hun
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Attitude; Commerce; Computer & video games; Crypto-currencies; Currencies; Data mining; Economics; Emotions; Forecasts and trends; Games, Recreational - psychology; Humans; Linguistics; Machine Learning; Models, Econometric; Online games; Predictions; Sentiment analysis; Social networks; Social Support; Surveys and Questionnaires; Test procedures; Trends; Variation; Virtual environments
• ISSN: 1932-6203; 1932-6203
• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0132944

In this paper, we present a method for predicting the value of virtual currencies used in virtual gaming environments that support multiple users, such as massively multiplayer online role-playing games (MMORPGs). Predicting virtual currency values in a virtual gaming environment has rarely been explored; it is difficult to apply real-world methods for predicting fluctuating currency values or shares to the virtual gaming world on account of differences in domains between the two worlds. To address this issue, we herein predict virtual currency value fluctuations by collecting user opinion data from a virtual community and analyzing user sentiments or emotions from the opinion data. The proposed method is straightforward and applicable to predicting virtual currencies as well as to gaming environments, including MMORPGs. We test the proposed method using large-scale MMORPGs and demonstrate that virtual currencies can be effectively and efficiently predicted with it.