Initial validation of a simulation model for estimating the impact of serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis vaccination in the African meningitis belt

We previously developed a mathematical simulation of serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis (NmA) transmission in Burkina Faso, with the goal of forecasting the relative benefit of different vaccination programs. Here, we revisit key structural assumptions of the model by comparing how accurately the di...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:PloS one 2018-10, Vol.13 (10), p.e0206117-e0206117
Main Authors: Jackson, Michael L, Diallo, Alpha Oumar, Médah, Isaie, Bicaba, Brice Wilfried, Yaméogo, Issaka, Koussoubé, Daouda, Ouédraogo, Rasmata, Sangaré, Lassané, Mbaeyi, Sarah A
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Age
Biology and Life Sciences
Care and treatment
Children
Colonization
Computer simulation
Disease control
Epidemics
Epidemiology
Immunity
Immunization
Infections
Mathematical models
Medicine and Health Sciences
Meningitis
Meningococcal vaccines
Neisseria meningitidis
People and places
Population
Public health
Research and Analysis Methods
Respiratory diseases
Risk factors
Simulation
Systematic review
Trends
Vaccination
Vaccines
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:We previously developed a mathematical simulation of serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis (NmA) transmission in Burkina Faso, with the goal of forecasting the relative benefit of different vaccination programs. Here, we revisit key structural assumptions of the model by comparing how accurately the different assumptions reproduce observed NmA trends following vaccine introduction. A priori, we updated several of the model's parameters based on recently published studies. We simulated NmA disease under different assumptions about duration of vaccine-induced protection (including the possibility that vaccine-induced protection may last longer than natural immunity). We compared simulated and observed case counts from 2011-2017. We then used the best-fit model to forecast the impact of different vaccination strategies. Our updated model, with the assumption that vaccine-induced immunity lasts longer than immunity following NmA colonization, was able to reproduce observed trends in NmA disease. The updated model predicts that, following a mass campaign among persons 1-29 years of age, either routine immunization of 9 month-old children or periodic mini-campaigns among children 1-4 years of age will lead to sustained control of epidemic NmA in Burkina Faso. This validated model can help public health officials set policies for meningococcal vaccination in Africa.
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0206117