Methods for calculating credible intervals for ratios of beta distributions with application to relative risks of death during the second plague pandemic

Employing historical records we are able to estimate the risk of premature death during the second plague pandemic, and identify the Black Death and pestis secunda epidemics. We show a novel method of calculating Bayesian credible intervals for a ratio of beta distributed random variables and use th...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PloS one 2019-02, Vol.14 (2), p.e0211633-e0211633
Main Authors: Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar, Maria, Finnie, Thomas J R, Sloane, Barney, Hall, Ian M
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Analysis
Bayes Theorem
Bayesian analysis
Biology and Life Sciences
Bubonic plague
Computer and Information Sciences
Contingency
Contingency tables
Death
DNA, Bacterial - genetics
Epidemics
Epidemiology
Health surveillance
Humans
Hypothesis testing
Intervals
Mathematical analysis
Medicine and Health Sciences
Methods
Mortality
Mortality, Premature
Novels
Pandemics
Patient outcomes
Phylogeny
Physical Sciences
Plague
Plague - epidemiology
Plague - mortality
Programming languages
Public health
Random variables
Ratios
Risk
Risk assessment
Risk factors
Statistical analysis
Yersinia pestis - genetics
Yersinia pestis - pathogenicity
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Summary:Employing historical records we are able to estimate the risk of premature death during the second plague pandemic, and identify the Black Death and pestis secunda epidemics. We show a novel method of calculating Bayesian credible intervals for a ratio of beta distributed random variables and use this to quantify uncertainty of relative risk estimates for these two epidemics which we consider in a 2 × 2 contingency table framework.
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0211633