Climate change adaptation and the role of fuel subsidies: An empirical bio-economic modeling study for an artisanal open-access fishery

• Published in: PloS one 2019-08, Vol.14 (8), p.e0220433
• Main Authors: Lancker, Kira, Deppenmeier, Anna-Lena, Demissie, Teferi, Schmidt, Jörn O
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Acclimatization - physiology; Adaptation; Agriculture; Analysis; Animals; Biodiversity; Biology and Life Sciences; Biomass; Climate adaptation; Climate Change; Climate effects; Climate models; Climate variations; Climatic variations; Collapse; Commercial fishing; Computer simulation; Conservation of Natural Resources - economics; Deflation (Economics); Earth Sciences; Ecological effects; Ecological monitoring; Ecology; Economic analysis; Economic development; Economic models; Ecosystem; Engineering and Technology; Environmental aspects; Environmental policy; Environmental sustainability; Fish; Fisheries; Fisheries - economics; Fisheries management; Fishery development; Fishery policy; Fishes; Fishing; Food security; Fuels; Global temperature changes; Models, Economic; Open access publishing; Overfishing; Pelagic zone; Physical Sciences; Population; Production management; Research and Analysis Methods; Stochasticity; Subsidies; Subsidies (financial); Sustainability; Sustainable development; Time series; Triple Bottom Line
• ISSN: 1932-6203; 1932-6203
• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0220433

Climate change can severely impact artisanal fisheries and affect the role they play in food security. We study climate change effects on the triple bottom line of ecological productivity, fishers' incomes, and fish consumption for an artisanal open-access fishery. We develop and apply an empirical, stochastic bio-economic model for the Senegalese artisanal purse seine fishery on small pelagic fish and compare the simulated fishery's development using four climate projections and two policy scenarios. We find that economic processes of adaptation may amplify the effects of climate variations. The regions' catch potential increases with climate change, induced by stock distribution changes. However, this outcome escalates over-fishing, whose effects outpace the incipiently favorable climate change effects under three of the four climate projections. Without policy action, the fishery is estimated to collapse in 2030-2035 on average over 1000 runs. We propose an easily implementable and overall welfare-increasing intervention: reduction of fuel subsidies. If fuel subsidies were abolished, ecological sustainability as well as the fishery's welfare contribution would increase regardless of the climate projection.