Dispersion of Legionella bacteria in atmosphere: A practical source location estimation method

Legionnaires' disease, a form of pneumonia which can be fatal, is transmitted via the inhalation of water droplets containing Legionella bacteria. These droplets can be dispersed in the atmosphere several kilometers from their source. The most common such sources are contaminated water within c...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PloS one 2019-11, Vol.14 (11), p.e0224144-e0224144
Main Authors: Dyke, Steven, Barrass, Iain, Pollock, Kevin, Hall, Ian M
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Air conditioners
Air conditioning
Air Conditioning - adverse effects
Air Conditioning - instrumentation
Air conditioning equipment
Air Microbiology
Air pollution research
Analysis
Atmosphere
Atmosphere - analysis
Atmospheric diffusion
Atmospheric dispersion
Atmospheric models
Bacteria
Bacterial infections
Biology and Life Sciences
Computer and Information Sciences
Computer Simulation
Cooling towers
Disease Outbreaks - prevention & control
Disease transmission
Dispersion
Droplets
Epidemics
Epidemiology
Humans
Infections
Inhalation
Legionella
Legionella pneumophila - isolation & purification
Legionella pneumophila - pathogenicity
Legionnaire's disease
Legionnaires' disease
Legionnaires' Disease - microbiology
Legionnaires' Disease - prevention & control
Legionnaires' Disease - transmission
Likelihood Functions
Medicine and Health Sciences
Methods
Outbreaks
Parameter estimation
Parameter uncertainty
Physical Sciences
Pneumonia
Pollution dispersion
Pollution sources
Public health
Respiration
United Kingdom
United Kingdom - epidemiology
Water droplets
Water drops
Water pollution
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Description
Summary:Legionnaires' disease, a form of pneumonia which can be fatal, is transmitted via the inhalation of water droplets containing Legionella bacteria. These droplets can be dispersed in the atmosphere several kilometers from their source. The most common such sources are contaminated water within cooling towers and other air-conditioning systems but other sources such as ornamental fountains and spa pools have also caused outbreaks of the disease in the past. There is an obvious need to locate and eliminate any such sources as quickly as possible. Here a maximum likelihood model estimating the source of an outbreak from case location data has been developed and implemented. Unlike previous models, the average dose exposure sub-model is formulated using a atmospheric dispersion model. How the uncertainty in inferred parameters can be estimated is discussed. The model is applied to the 2012 Edinburgh Legionnaires' disease outbreak.
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0224144