Ocean warming and acidification may drag down the commercial Arctic cod fishery by 2100

The Arctic Ocean is an early warning system for indicators and effects of climate change. We use a novel combination of experimental and time-series data on effects of ocean warming and acidification on the commercially important Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua) to incorporate these physiological...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PloS one 2020-04, Vol.15 (4), p.e0231589
Main Authors: Hänsel, Martin C, Schmidt, Jörn O, Stiasny, Martina H, Stöven, Max T, Voss, Rudi, Quaas, Martin F
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Acidification
Arctogadus glacialis
Biodiversity
Biology and Life Sciences
Climate change
Climate change scenarios
Climate effects
Cod
Commercial fishing
Early warning systems
Earth Sciences
Ecology and Environmental Sciences
Economic models
Economics
Fish
Fish populations
Fisheries
Fisheries management
Fishing
Food security
Future climates
Indicators
Mortality
Natural resources
Ocean temperature
Ocean warming
Oceans
Optimization
Physiology
Polar environments
Population
Pressure
Sustainability
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Summary:The Arctic Ocean is an early warning system for indicators and effects of climate change. We use a novel combination of experimental and time-series data on effects of ocean warming and acidification on the commercially important Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua) to incorporate these physiological processes into the recruitment model of the fish population. By running an ecological-economic optimization model, we investigate how the interaction of ocean warming, acidification and fishing pressure affects the sustainability of the fishery in terms of ecological, economic, social and consumer-related indicators, ranging from present day conditions up to future climate change scenarios. We find that near-term climate change will benefit the fishery, but under likely future warming and acidification this large fishery is at risk of collapse by the end of the century, even with the best adaptation effort in terms of reduced fishing pressure.
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0231589