The impact of social distancing and public behavior changes on COVID-19 transmission dynamics in the Republic of Korea

• Published in: PloS one 2020-09, Vol.15 (9), p.e0238684-e0238684
• Main Authors: Kim, Soyoung, Ko, Youngsuk, Kim, Yae-Jean, Jung, Eunok
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Antiviral agents; Betacoronavirus; Combined vaccines; Communicable Disease Control - methods; Contact tracing; Control; Coronavirus Infections - mortality; Coronavirus Infections - prevention & control; Coronavirus Infections - transmission; Coronaviruses; COVID-19; Disease control; Disease transmission; Epidemics; Fatalities; Forecasting; Health Behavior; Health risks; Humans; Influence; Mathematical analysis; Mathematical models; Mathematics; Medical treatment; Medicine and Health Sciences; Models, Theoretical; Outbreaks; Pandemics - prevention & control; Parameter estimation; Pharmaceuticals; Pneumonia, Viral - mortality; Pneumonia, Viral - prevention & control; Pneumonia, Viral - transmission; Population; Prevention; Public health; Republic of Korea - epidemiology; Research and Analysis Methods; SARS-CoV-2; Social behavior; Social distancing; Social distancing (Public health); Social Isolation; South Korea; Vaccines; Viral diseases
• ISSN: 1932-6203; 1932-6203
• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0238684

In the Republic of Korea (ROK), social distancing and public behavior changes mitigated COVID-19 spread. However, a second wave of the epidemic is expected in the fall if neither vaccine nor antiviral drugs become available. This study investigated the impact of non-pharmaceutical measures on short- and long-term outbreak dynamics. A mathematical model based on Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered model is developed considering isolated and behavior-changed groups. Using the least-squares fitting method, transmission and behavior change rates were estimated using cases reported from February 16 to April 20, 2020. The estimated transmission rate of COVID-19 was 4·6180 and behavior change rate was 2·6044. The model predicted the number of new cases to continuously decrease, with less than one case expected after May 6, 2020. Concurrently, a 25% reduction in behavioral changes during the outbreak would increase the case count by 60,000, resulting in 4,000 cases at maximum, exceeding the medical system's capacity. As behavioral restrictions are eased, local transmission will likely increase, with forecasted second wave peak in October 2020. Social distancing and public behavior changes have curbed the spread of COVID-19 in the ROK. Mathematical modeling demonstrates the importance of these measures in reducing and delaying outbreaks. Nevertheless, non-pharmaceutical interventions cannot eliminate the disease. In the future, vaccines and antiviral treatments combined with social distancing and public behavior changes will be paramount to ending COVID-19 epidemic.