Preparing for the future: The changing demographic composition of hospital patients in Denmark between 2013 and 2050

The Danish population in 2013 (N = 5.63 million) was followed up for inpatient and emergency admissions recorded in Danish hospitals in 2013 using population-based registers. We combined age- and sex-specific hospital care use in 2013 with official population estimates to forecast the profile of hos...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PloS one 2020-09, Vol.15 (9), p.e0238912-e0238912
Main Authors: Oksuzyan, Anna, Höhn, Andreas, Krabbe Pedersen, Jacob, Rau, Roland, Lindahl-Jacobsen, Rune, Christensen, Kaare
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Age
Aging
Biology and Life Sciences
Demographic aspects
Demographics
Demography
Emergency medical services
Epidemiology
Expenditures
Forecasts and trends
Geriatrics
Hospital patients
Hospitals
Medical students
Medicine and Health Sciences
Men
Mortality
Obstetrics
Older people
Patients
People and places
Population
Population statistics
Sex
Trends
Womens health
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Summary:The Danish population in 2013 (N = 5.63 million) was followed up for inpatient and emergency admissions recorded in Danish hospitals in 2013 using population-based registers. We combined age- and sex-specific hospital care use in 2013 with official population estimates to forecast the profile of hospital days up to 2050 with respect to age and sex. The total number of hospital days per year is projected to increase by 42% between 2013 and 2050, from 4.66 to 6.72 million days. While small changes are projected for the population aged 0-69, the largest change is projected to occur for the population aged 70+. The 2013 levels were 0.82 and 0.93 million days for men and women aged 70+, respectively. By 2050, these levels are projected to have reached 1.94 and 1.84 million days. While the population aged 70+ accounted for 37.5% of all days in 2013, its contribution is projected to increase to 56.2% by 2050. Our study shows one possible scenario for changes in the hospital days due to population aging by 2050: Assuming no changes in hospital care use over the forecast period, the absolute contribution of individuals aged 70+ to the total hospital days will more than double, and the relative contribution of persons aged 70+ will account for nearly 60% of all hospital days by 2050, being largest among men.
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0238912