Persistent heat waves projected for Middle East and North Africa by the end of the 21st century

The duration and intensity of future heat waves are analyzed for 53 cities in the Middle East and the North Africa (MENA) region for the 21st century under two different scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). A consistent approach is carried out using data from 13 Regional models within the framework of the...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PloS one 2020-11, Vol.15 (11), p.e0242477
Main Authors: Varela, R, Rodríguez-Díaz, L, deCastro, M
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
21st century
Acclimatization
Adaptation, Physiological
Africa, Northern
Aridity
Cities
Climate change
Climate Change - statistics & numerical data
Climate models
Drought
Earth Sciences
Famine
Forecasting
Forecasts and trends
Heat
Heat waves
Hot Temperature - adverse effects
Hot weather
Humans
Laboratories
Megacities
Middle East
Mitigation
People and Places
Physical Sciences
Physics
Population
Regional climates
Research and Analysis Methods
Seasons
Social Sciences
Temperature
Urban areas
Warm seasons
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Summary:The duration and intensity of future heat waves are analyzed for 53 cities in the Middle East and the North Africa (MENA) region for the 21st century under two different scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). A consistent approach is carried out using data from 13 Regional models within the framework of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). By the end of the century, 80% of the most populated MENA cities are expected to be at least 50% of the days under heat wave conditions during the warm season. In addition, the mean and maximum intensity of the heat waves will also increase. Changes in the duration and intensity of heat waves have shown to be negatively correlated. Therefore, the vulnerability of the MENA cities to future heat waves was determined using a cumulative index (CI) that takes into account both duration and intensity. This CI indicates that Middle East and the eastern part of Africa will suffer the most unfavorable temperature conditions in the future. Assuming no intervention trough adaptation/mitigation strategies, these results, together with the particular properties of the MENA region, such as aridity or lack of precipitation, make it likely that the area will be affected by disease or famine.
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0242477