Relationships between migration and the fiscal sustainability of the pension system in China

There are a few existing studies on whether domestic migration improves China's pension system's fiscal sustainability in the context of rapid urbanization and industrialization. In this paper, we systematically investigate the impact of migration on the solvency of the worker's old-a...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PloS one 2021-03, Vol.16 (3), p.e0248138-e0248138
Main Authors: Hu, Haoyu, Wang, Wei, Feng, Dawei, Yang, Hualei
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Actuarial Analysis - methods
Aging
Biology and Life Sciences
China
Data analysis
Earth Sciences
Econometrics
Economic analysis
Economic aspects
Economics
Editing
Emigration and immigration
Empirical analysis
Employees
Engineering and Technology
Expenditures
Fertility
Finance
Humans
Industrial Development - trends
Insurance - trends
Migration
Models, Econometric
Pensions
Pensions - statistics & numerical data
Population
Population Dynamics - trends
Public administration
Public Policy - economics
Public Policy - trends
Reviews
Social aspects
Social change
Social Sciences
Solvency
Subsidies
Sustainability
Urbanization
Urbanization - trends
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Summary:There are a few existing studies on whether domestic migration improves China's pension system's fiscal sustainability in the context of rapid urbanization and industrialization. In this paper, we systematically investigate the impact of migration on the solvency of the worker's old-age insurance for urban employees by constructing actuarial and econometric models. We use panel data from 2002 to 2018, collected from 31 provinces in China. The results show that the association between migration and the solvency of pensions is an inverted-U shape along the urbanization process. Further regional comparison showed that the above-stated inverted-U curve is more pronounced in the central and western regions. We also established that the number of participants and the contribution base are the main contributors to these results. Our conclusions are important for future population policies and public pension systems in China.
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0248138