Dynamical SPQEIR model assesses the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 epidemic outbreaks

Against the current COVID-19 pandemic, governments worldwide have devised a variety of non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate it. However, it is generally difficult to estimate the joint impact of different control strategies. In this paper, we tackle this question with an extended epidemic SE...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:PloS one 2021-05, Vol.16 (5), p.e0252019
Main Authors: Proverbio, Daniele, Kemp, Françoise, Magni, Stefano, Husch, Andreas, Aalto, Atte, Mombaerts, Laurent, Skupin, Alexander, Gonçalves, Jorge, Ameijeiras-Alonso, Jose, Ley, Christophe
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Applications of mathematics
Applied mathematics
Belgium
Computer programs
Contact Tracing - methods
Contact Tracing - statistics & numerical data
Control
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
COVID-19 - epidemiology
COVID-19 - prevention & control
COVID-19 - transmission
Disease transmission
Drafting software
Editing
Epidemics
Humans
Infections
International organizations
Investigations
Mathematical analysis
Medicine and Health Sciences
Methods
Models, Statistical
Pharmaceuticals
Physical Distancing
Prevention
Public health
Public health administration
Quarantine - methods
Quarantine - statistics & numerical data
Research and Analysis Methods
Reviews
Social distancing
Software
Statistical analysis
Supervision
Viral diseases
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Against the current COVID-19 pandemic, governments worldwide have devised a variety of non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate it. However, it is generally difficult to estimate the joint impact of different control strategies. In this paper, we tackle this question with an extended epidemic SEIR model, informed by a socio-political classification of different interventions. First, we inquire the conceptual effect of mitigation parameters on the infection curve. Then, we illustrate the potential of our model to reproduce and explain empirical data from a number of countries, to perform cross-country comparisons. This gives information on the best synergies of interventions to control epidemic outbreaks while minimising impact on socio-economic needs. For instance, our results suggest that, while rapid and strong lockdown is an effective pandemic mitigation measure, a combination of social distancing and early contact tracing can achieve similar mitigation synergistically, while keeping lower isolation rates. This quantitative understanding can support the establishment of mid- and long-term interventions, to prepare containment strategies against further outbreaks. This paper also provides an online tool that allows researchers and decision makers to interactively simulate diverse scenarios with our model.
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0252019