The benefits of coronavirus suppression: A cost-benefit analysis of the response to the first wave of COVID-19 in the United States

This paper estimates the benefits and costs of state suppression policies to "bend the curve" during the initial outbreak of COVID-19 in the United States. We employ an approach that values benefits and costs in terms of additions or subtractions to total production. Relative to a baseline...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PloS one 2021-06, Vol.16 (6), p.e0252729-e0252729
Main Authors: Broughel, James, Kotrous, Michael
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Benefit cost analysis
Biology and Life Sciences
Commerce - economics
Coronaviruses
Cost benefit analysis
Cost control
Cost-Benefit Analysis - methods
COVID-19
COVID-19 - economics
Disease control
Disease transmission
Educational facilities
Enforcement
Evaluation
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
Health promotion
Health risks
Human capital
Humans
Medicine and Health Sciences
Mortality
Opportunity costs
Pandemics
People and Places
Physical Distancing
Population
Public health
Quarantine - economics
SARS-CoV-2 - pathogenicity
Shelter in place
Social distancing
United States
Viral diseases
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Summary:This paper estimates the benefits and costs of state suppression policies to "bend the curve" during the initial outbreak of COVID-19 in the United States. We employ an approach that values benefits and costs in terms of additions or subtractions to total production. Relative to a baseline in which only the infected and at-risk populations mitigate the spread of coronavirus, we estimate that total benefits of suppression policies to economic output are between $632.5 billion and $765.0 billion from early March 2020 to August 1, 2020. Relative to private mitigation, output lost due to suppression policies is estimated to be between $214.2 billion and $331.5 billion. The cost estimate is based on the duration of nonessential business closures and stay-at-home orders, which were enforced between 42 and 65 days. Our results indicate that the net benefits of suppression policies to slow the spread of COVID-19 are positive and may be substantial. We discuss uncertainty surrounding several parameters and employ alternative methods for valuing mortality benefits, which also suggest that suppression measures had positive net benefits.
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0252729