The impact of vaccination to control COVID-19 burden in the United States: A simulation modeling approach

Introduction Vaccination programs aim to control the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the relative impacts of vaccine coverage, effectiveness, and capacity in the context of nonpharmaceutical interventions such as mask use and physical distancing on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 are unclear. Our objective was...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PloS one 2021-07, Vol.16 (7), p.e0254456-e0254456
Main Authors: Alagoz, Oguzhan, Sethi, Ajay K, Patterson, Brian W, Churpek, Matthew, Alhanaee, Ghalib, Scaria, Elizabeth, Safdar, Nasia
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Biology and Life Sciences
Community
Computer and Information Sciences
Control
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
COVID-19 vaccines
Disease control
Disease transmission
Drug dosages
Epidemics
FDA approval
Health sciences
Management
Medical research
Medicine
Medicine and Health Sciences
Metropolitan areas
Pandemics
People and Places
Physical Sciences
Population
Public health
Research and Analysis Methods
Severe acute respiratory syndrome
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
Simulation
Software
United States
Vaccination
Vaccine efficacy
Vaccines
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Summary:Introduction Vaccination programs aim to control the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the relative impacts of vaccine coverage, effectiveness, and capacity in the context of nonpharmaceutical interventions such as mask use and physical distancing on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 are unclear. Our objective was to examine the impact of vaccination on the control of SARS-CoV-2 using our previously developed agent-based simulation model. Methods We applied our agent-based model to replicate COVID-19-related events in 1) Dane County, Wisconsin; 2) Milwaukee metropolitan area, Wisconsin; 3) New York City (NYC). We evaluated the impact of vaccination considering the proportion of the population vaccinated, probability that a vaccinated individual gains immunity, vaccination capacity, and adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions. We estimated the timing of pandemic control, defined as the date after which only a small number of new cases occur. Results The timing of pandemic control depends highly on vaccination coverage, effectiveness, and adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions. In Dane County and Milwaukee, if 50% of the population is vaccinated with a daily vaccination capacity of 0.25% of the population, vaccine effectiveness of 90%, and the adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions is 60%, controlled spread could be achieved by June 2021 versus October 2021 in Dane County and November 2021 in Milwaukee without vaccine. Discussion In controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the impact of vaccination varies widely depending not only on effectiveness and coverage, but also concurrent adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions.
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0254456