Impact of university re-opening on total community COVID-19 burden

University students have higher average number of contacts than the general population. Students returning to university campuses may exacerbate COVID-19 dynamics in the surrounding community. We developed a dynamic transmission model of COVID-19 in a mid-sized city currently experiencing a low infe...

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Published in:PloS one 2021-08, Vol.16 (8), p.e0255782-e0255782
Main Authors: Cipriano, Lauren E, Haddara, Wael M R, Zaric, Gregory S, Enns, Eva A
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Canada
Causes of
College campuses
College students
Colleges & universities
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
COVID-19 - epidemiology
COVID-19 - transmission
Disease prevention
Disease transmission
Fatalities
Health aspects
Health risks
Hospitalization
Humans
Infections
Mass Screening
Medicine and Health Sciences
Models, Theoretical
Mortality
Occupancy
Public health
Screening
Social Sciences
Students
Universities
Universities and colleges
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description University students have higher average number of contacts than the general population. Students returning to university campuses may exacerbate COVID-19 dynamics in the surrounding community. We developed a dynamic transmission model of COVID-19 in a mid-sized city currently experiencing a low infection rate. We evaluated the impact of 20,000 university students arriving on September 1 in terms of cumulative COVID-19 infections, time to peak infections, and the timing and peak level of critical care occupancy. We also considered how these impacts might be mitigated through screening interventions targeted to students. If arriving students reduce their contacts by 40% compared to pre-COVID levels, the total number of infections in the community increases by 115% (from 3,515 to 7,551), with 70% of the incremental infections occurring in the general population, and an incremental 19 COVID-19 deaths. Screening students every 5 days reduces the number of infections attributable to the student population by 42% and the total COVID-19 deaths by 8. One-time mass screening of students prevents fewer infections than 5-day screening, but is more efficient, requiring 196 tests needed to avert one infection instead of 237. University students are highly inter-connected with the surrounding off-campus community. Screening targeted at this population provides significant public health benefits to the community through averted infections, critical care admissions, and COVID-19 deaths.
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source PubMed Central(OpenAccess); Publicly Available Content (ProQuest); Coronavirus Research Database
subjects Canada
Causes of
College campuses
College students
Colleges & universities
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
COVID-19 - epidemiology
COVID-19 - transmission
Disease prevention
Disease transmission
Fatalities
Health aspects
Health risks
Hospitalization
Humans
Infections
Mass Screening
Medicine and Health Sciences
Models, Theoretical
Mortality
Occupancy
Public health
Screening
Social Sciences
Students
Universities
Universities and colleges
title Impact of university re-opening on total community COVID-19 burden
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