Moore's Law revisited through Intel chip density

Gordon Moore famously observed that the number of transistors in state-of-the-art integrated circuits (units per chip) increases exponentially, doubling every 12-24 months. Analysts have debated whether simple exponential growth describes the dynamics of computer processor evolution. We note that th...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PloS one 2021-08, Vol.16 (8), p.e0256245-e0256245
Main Authors: Burg, David, Ausubel, Jesse H
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Artificial intelligence
Biology and Life Sciences
Computer and Information Sciences
Density
Electronics - trends
Engineering and Technology
Evolution
Growth rate
Humans
Integrated circuits
Measurement
Microprocessors
Miniaturization
Miniaturization - methods
Parameter estimation
Physical Sciences
Physiological aspects
R&D
Research & development
Research and Analysis Methods
Semiconductor chips
Semiconductor devices
Semiconductors
Specific gravity
Transistors
Transistors, Electronic - trends
Trends
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Summary:Gordon Moore famously observed that the number of transistors in state-of-the-art integrated circuits (units per chip) increases exponentially, doubling every 12-24 months. Analysts have debated whether simple exponential growth describes the dynamics of computer processor evolution. We note that the increase encompasses two related phenomena, integration of larger numbers of transistors and transistor miniaturization. Growth in the number of transistors per unit area, or chip density, allows examination of the evolution with a single measure. Density of Intel processors between 1959 and 2013 are consistent with a biphasic sigmoidal curve with characteristic times of 9.5 years. During each stage, transistor density increased at least tenfold within approximately six years, followed by at least three years with negligible growth rates. The six waves of transistor density increase account for and give insight into the underlying processes driving advances in processor manufacturing and point to future limits that might be overcome.
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0256245