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The link between climate change, food security and fertility: The case of Bangladesh

Climate change is likely to worsen the food security situation through its impact on food production, which may indirectly affect fertility behaviour. This study examines the direct and indirect effects of climate change (e.g., temperature and precipitation) via the production of major crops, as wel...

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Published in:PloS one 2021-10, Vol.16 (10), p.e0258196-e0258196
Main Authors: Chen, Mengni, Atiqul Haq, Shah Md, Ahmed, Khandaker Jafor, Hussain, A. H. M. Belayeth, Ahmed, Mufti Nadimul Quamar
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description Climate change is likely to worsen the food security situation through its impact on food production, which may indirectly affect fertility behaviour. This study examines the direct and indirect effects of climate change (e.g., temperature and precipitation) via the production of major crops, as well as their short- and long-term effects on the total fertility rate (TFR) in Bangladesh. We used structural equation modelling (SEM) to perform path analysis and distinguish the direct influence of climate change on fertility and its indirect influence on fertility through food security. We also applied the error correction model (ECM) to analyze the time-series data on temperature and precipitation, crop production and fertility rate of Bangladesh from 1966 to 2015. The results show that maximum temperature has a direct effect and indirect negative effect–via crop production–on TFR, while crop production has a direct positive effect and indirect negative effect–via infant mortality–on TFR. In the short term, TFR responds negatively to the maximum temperature but positively in the long term. The effect of rainfall on TFR is found to be direct, positive, but mainly short-term. Although indicators of economic development play an important part in the fertility decline in Bangladesh, some climate change parameters and crop production are non-negligible factors.
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subjects Agricultural production
Agriculture
Climate change
Climate change influences
Climate effects
Climatic changes
Corn
Crop production
Crops
Cyclones
Economic aspects
Economic development
Environmental aspects
Error analysis
Error correction
Family planning
Fertility
Fertility decline
Food crops
Food production
Food security
Food supply
Infant mortality
Long-term effects
Maximum temperatures
Migration
Mortality
Multivariate statistical analysis
Population
Precipitation
Precipitation-temperature relationships
Production processes
Rain effects
Rainfall
Rice
Sociology
Structural equation modeling
Temperature effects
Water shortages
Wheat
title The link between climate change, food security and fertility: The case of Bangladesh
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