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The link between climate change, food security and fertility: The case of Bangladesh
Climate change is likely to worsen the food security situation through its impact on food production, which may indirectly affect fertility behaviour. This study examines the direct and indirect effects of climate change (e.g., temperature and precipitation) via the production of major crops, as wel...
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Published in: | PloS one 2021-10, Vol.16 (10), p.e0258196-e0258196 |
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description | Climate change is likely to worsen the food security situation through its impact on food production, which may indirectly affect fertility behaviour. This study examines the direct and indirect effects of climate change (e.g., temperature and precipitation) via the production of major crops, as well as their short- and long-term effects on the total fertility rate (TFR) in Bangladesh. We used structural equation modelling (SEM) to perform path analysis and distinguish the direct influence of climate change on fertility and its indirect influence on fertility through food security. We also applied the error correction model (ECM) to analyze the time-series data on temperature and precipitation, crop production and fertility rate of Bangladesh from 1966 to 2015. The results show that maximum temperature has a direct effect and indirect negative effect–via crop production–on TFR, while crop production has a direct positive effect and indirect negative effect–via infant mortality–on TFR. In the short term, TFR responds negatively to the maximum temperature but positively in the long term. The effect of rainfall on TFR is found to be direct, positive, but mainly short-term. Although indicators of economic development play an important part in the fertility decline in Bangladesh, some climate change parameters and crop production are non-negligible factors. |
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H. M. Belayeth ; Ahmed, Mufti Nadimul Quamar</creator><contributor>Sarker, Md Nazirul Islam</contributor><creatorcontrib>Chen, Mengni ; Atiqul Haq, Shah Md ; Ahmed, Khandaker Jafor ; Hussain, A. H. M. Belayeth ; Ahmed, Mufti Nadimul Quamar ; Sarker, Md Nazirul Islam</creatorcontrib><description>Climate change is likely to worsen the food security situation through its impact on food production, which may indirectly affect fertility behaviour. This study examines the direct and indirect effects of climate change (e.g., temperature and precipitation) via the production of major crops, as well as their short- and long-term effects on the total fertility rate (TFR) in Bangladesh. We used structural equation modelling (SEM) to perform path analysis and distinguish the direct influence of climate change on fertility and its indirect influence on fertility through food security. We also applied the error correction model (ECM) to analyze the time-series data on temperature and precipitation, crop production and fertility rate of Bangladesh from 1966 to 2015. The results show that maximum temperature has a direct effect and indirect negative effect–via crop production–on TFR, while crop production has a direct positive effect and indirect negative effect–via infant mortality–on TFR. In the short term, TFR responds negatively to the maximum temperature but positively in the long term. The effect of rainfall on TFR is found to be direct, positive, but mainly short-term. Although indicators of economic development play an important part in the fertility decline in Bangladesh, some climate change parameters and crop production are non-negligible factors.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0258196</identifier><identifier>PMID: 34673797</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>San Francisco: Public Library of Science</publisher><subject>Agricultural production ; Agriculture ; Climate change ; Climate change influences ; Climate effects ; Climatic changes ; Corn ; Crop production ; Crops ; Cyclones ; Economic aspects ; Economic development ; Environmental aspects ; Error analysis ; Error correction ; Family planning ; Fertility ; Fertility decline ; Food crops ; Food production ; Food security ; Food supply ; Infant mortality ; Long-term effects ; Maximum temperatures ; Migration ; Mortality ; Multivariate statistical analysis ; Population ; Precipitation ; Precipitation-temperature relationships ; Production processes ; Rain effects ; Rainfall ; Rice ; Sociology ; Structural equation modeling ; Temperature effects ; Water shortages ; Wheat</subject><ispartof>PloS one, 2021-10, Vol.16 (10), p.e0258196-e0258196</ispartof><rights>COPYRIGHT 2021 Public Library of Science</rights><rights>2021 Chen et al. 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The results show that maximum temperature has a direct effect and indirect negative effect–via crop production–on TFR, while crop production has a direct positive effect and indirect negative effect–via infant mortality–on TFR. In the short term, TFR responds negatively to the maximum temperature but positively in the long term. The effect of rainfall on TFR is found to be direct, positive, but mainly short-term. Although indicators of economic development play an important part in the fertility decline in Bangladesh, some climate change parameters and crop production are non-negligible factors.</description><subject>Agricultural production</subject><subject>Agriculture</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Climate change influences</subject><subject>Climate effects</subject><subject>Climatic changes</subject><subject>Corn</subject><subject>Crop production</subject><subject>Crops</subject><subject>Cyclones</subject><subject>Economic aspects</subject><subject>Economic development</subject><subject>Environmental aspects</subject><subject>Error analysis</subject><subject>Error correction</subject><subject>Family planning</subject><subject>Fertility</subject><subject>Fertility decline</subject><subject>Food crops</subject><subject>Food production</subject><subject>Food security</subject><subject>Food supply</subject><subject>Infant mortality</subject><subject>Long-term effects</subject><subject>Maximum temperatures</subject><subject>Migration</subject><subject>Mortality</subject><subject>Multivariate statistical analysis</subject><subject>Population</subject><subject>Precipitation</subject><subject>Precipitation-temperature relationships</subject><subject>Production processes</subject><subject>Rain effects</subject><subject>Rainfall</subject><subject>Rice</subject><subject>Sociology</subject><subject>Structural equation modeling</subject><subject>Temperature effects</subject><subject>Water shortages</subject><subject>Wheat</subject><issn>1932-6203</issn><issn>1932-6203</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2021</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>BHHNA</sourceid><sourceid>PIMPY</sourceid><sourceid>DOA</sourceid><recordid>eNqNkluL1DAUx4so7rr6DQQDgig4Y9K0aeKDsC5eBhYWdPQ1nKYn06yZZrZp1f32ZpwqW9kHCeT6O_9zycmyx4wuGa_Yq8sw9h345S50uKR5KZkSd7Jjpni-EDnld2_sj7IHMV5SWnIpxP3siBei4pWqjrP1ukXiXfeN1Dj8QOyI8W4LAxLTQrfBl8SG0JCIZuzdcE2ga4jFfnA-nV6TvbWBiCRY8jbxHhqM7cPsngUf8dG0nmRf3r9bn31cnF98WJ2dni9MCkosbGHrxkhmLSoJrKSU5bKEWhqeZqiopbbmUuZC5FBxaVUOqmJC5cqWafCT7MlBd-dD1FNBok61KHIlZVEmYnUgmgCXeten1PprHcDp3xeh32hIyRiPOvkuJAqKALaQFUpTNbKsaWO5ZZbutd5M3sZ6i43BbujBz0TnL51r9SZ817LklDOWBJ5PAn24GjEOeuuiQe-hwzAe4i54kT4moU__QW_PbqI2kBJwnQ3Jr9mL6lORvlcorvJELW-h0mhw60zqHuvS_czgxcwgMQP-HDYwxqhXnz_9P3vxdc4-u8G2CH5oY_Dj4EIX52BxAE0fYuzR_i0yo3rf_H-qoffNr6fm578A9h_0Qw</recordid><startdate>20211021</startdate><enddate>20211021</enddate><creator>Chen, Mengni</creator><creator>Atiqul Haq, Shah Md</creator><creator>Ahmed, Khandaker Jafor</creator><creator>Hussain, A. 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H. M. Belayeth</au><au>Ahmed, Mufti Nadimul Quamar</au><au>Sarker, Md Nazirul Islam</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>The link between climate change, food security and fertility: The case of Bangladesh</atitle><jtitle>PloS one</jtitle><date>2021-10-21</date><risdate>2021</risdate><volume>16</volume><issue>10</issue><spage>e0258196</spage><epage>e0258196</epage><pages>e0258196-e0258196</pages><issn>1932-6203</issn><eissn>1932-6203</eissn><abstract>Climate change is likely to worsen the food security situation through its impact on food production, which may indirectly affect fertility behaviour. This study examines the direct and indirect effects of climate change (e.g., temperature and precipitation) via the production of major crops, as well as their short- and long-term effects on the total fertility rate (TFR) in Bangladesh. We used structural equation modelling (SEM) to perform path analysis and distinguish the direct influence of climate change on fertility and its indirect influence on fertility through food security. We also applied the error correction model (ECM) to analyze the time-series data on temperature and precipitation, crop production and fertility rate of Bangladesh from 1966 to 2015. The results show that maximum temperature has a direct effect and indirect negative effect–via crop production–on TFR, while crop production has a direct positive effect and indirect negative effect–via infant mortality–on TFR. In the short term, TFR responds negatively to the maximum temperature but positively in the long term. The effect of rainfall on TFR is found to be direct, positive, but mainly short-term. 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subjects | Agricultural production Agriculture Climate change Climate change influences Climate effects Climatic changes Corn Crop production Crops Cyclones Economic aspects Economic development Environmental aspects Error analysis Error correction Family planning Fertility Fertility decline Food crops Food production Food security Food supply Infant mortality Long-term effects Maximum temperatures Migration Mortality Multivariate statistical analysis Population Precipitation Precipitation-temperature relationships Production processes Rain effects Rainfall Rice Sociology Structural equation modeling Temperature effects Water shortages Wheat |
title | The link between climate change, food security and fertility: The case of Bangladesh |
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