A theoretical analysis of complex armed conflicts

The introduction and analysis of a simple idealized model enables basic insights into how military characteristics and recruitment strategies affect the dynamics of armed conflicts, even in the complex case of three or more fighting groups. In particular, the model shows when never ending wars (stal...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PloS one 2022-03, Vol.17 (3), p.e0264418-e0264418
Main Authors: Rinaldi, Sergio, Gragnani, Alessandra, Moro, Francesco Niccolò, Della Rossa, Fabio
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Applied mathematics
Armed Conflicts
Attack and defense (Military science)
Computer and Information Sciences
Evaluation
Humans
Initial conditions
Mathematical models
Military Personnel
People and Places
Physical Sciences
Social Sciences
Systems analysis
Theoretical analysis
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Summary:The introduction and analysis of a simple idealized model enables basic insights into how military characteristics and recruitment strategies affect the dynamics of armed conflicts, even in the complex case of three or more fighting groups. In particular, the model shows when never ending wars (stalemates) are possible and how initial conditions and interventions influence a conflict's fate. The analysis points out that defensive recruitment policies aimed at compensating for suffered losses lead to conflicts with simple dynamics, while attack groups sensitive to the damages they inflict onto their enemies can give rise to conflicts with turbulent behaviours. Since non-governmental groups often follow attack strategies, the conclusion is that the evolution of conflicts involving groups of that kind can be expected to be difficult to forecast.
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0264418