Performance of clinician prediction of survival in oncology outpatients with advanced cancer

• Published in: PloS one 2022-04, Vol.17 (4), p.e0267467-e0267467
• Main Authors: Kim, Yu Jung, Yoon, Seok Joon, Suh, Sang-Yeon, Hiratsuka, Yusuke, Kang, Beodeul, Lee, Si Won, Ahn, Hong-Yup, Suh, Koung Jin, Kim, Ji-Won, Kim, Se Hyun, Kim, Jin Won, Lee, Keun-Wook, Kim, Jee Hyun, Lee, Jong Seok
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Accuracy; Appetite; Appetite loss; Cancer; Care and treatment; Chemotherapy; Confidence intervals; Dyspnea; Enrollments; Global health; Hematology; Hospitals; Humans; Internal medicine; Medical Oncology; Medical prognosis; Medical schools; Medicine; Medicine and Health Sciences; Nausea; Neoplasms - therapy; Oncology; Outpatients; Pain; Palliative Care; Patient outcomes; Patients; People and Places; Performance prediction; Physical Sciences; Physicians; Predictions; Prospective Studies; Public health; Quality of Life; Research and Analysis Methods; Respiration; Sensitivity; Surveys and Questionnaires; Survival; Terminally ill persons; Variance analysis; Vomiting
• ISSN: 1932-6203; 1932-6203
• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0267467

We aimed to investigate the performance of clinician prediction of survival (CPS) and the association between CPS and the prognostic confidence of clinicians in ambulatory medical oncology outpatients. Eight medical oncologists estimated the expected survival of their patients in a prospective cohort study. They were asked to provide a temporal type of CPS in weeks, together with their level of confidence for each prediction (0-100%). We analyzed the accuracy of CPS, the association between CPS and the prognostic confidence, and the characteristics of patients showing inaccurate CPS. A total of 200 advanced cancer patients were enrolled and the median overall survival was 7.6 months. CPS was accurate in 67 (33.5%) patients, underestimated in 87 (43.5%), and overestimated in 46 (23.0%). The overall accuracy of CPS for 12-week, 24-week, 36-week, and 48-week survival was 83.0%, 72.0%, 75.5%, and 74.0%, respectively. The specificity was highest for 12-week survival (90.2%) and the sensitivity was highest for 48-week survival (96.1%). The sensitivity of 12-week CPS was 51.4% and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve was 0.79 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.71-0.87). The prognostic confidence of clinicians was not significantly associated with the accuracy of prediction (P = 0.359). Patients with overestimated survival had significantly poorer global health status and physical/role/emotional functioning in the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire Core 30 (EORTC QLQ-C30). Additionally, they showed significantly higher levels of fatigue, nausea/vomiting, pain, dyspnea, and loss of appetite. The overall accuracy of CPS in predicting 12-week to 48-week survival was high in medical oncology outpatients. However the sensitivity of 12-week CPS was low and prognostic confidence was not associated with the accuracy of CPS. Patients with overestimated CPS showed poorer quality of life and higher symptom burden.