Projecting the SARS-CoV-2 transition from pandemicity to endemicity: Epidemiological and immunological considerations

In this review, we discuss the epidemiological dynamics of different viral infections to project how the transition from a pandemic to endemic Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) might take shape. Drawing from theories of disease invasion and transmission dynamics, waning im...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PLoS pathogens 2022-06, Vol.18 (6), p.e1010591-e1010591
Main Authors: Cohen, Lily E., Spiro, David J., Viboud, Cecile
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Antigenic drift
Antigens
Asymptomatic
Biology and life sciences
Coronaviruses
COVID-19 vaccines
Dengue
Dengue fever
Disease transmission
Epidemics
Epidemiology
Evolution
Immunology
Infections
Influenza
Mathematical models
Measles
Medicine and health sciences
Pandemics
Pathogens
Periodicity
Population
Public health
Respiratory diseases
Review
Rotavirus
Severe acute respiratory syndrome
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
Social distancing
Swine flu
Vector-borne diseases
Viral diseases
Viruses
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Summary:In this review, we discuss the epidemiological dynamics of different viral infections to project how the transition from a pandemic to endemic Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) might take shape. Drawing from theories of disease invasion and transmission dynamics, waning immunity in the face of viral evolution and antigenic drift, and empirical data from influenza, dengue, and seasonal coronaviruses, we discuss the putative periodicity, severity, and age dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 as it becomes endemic. We review recent studies on SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology, immunology, and evolution that are particularly useful in projecting the transition to endemicity and highlight gaps that warrant further research.
ISSN:1553-7374
1553-7366
1553-7374
DOI:10.1371/journal.ppat.1010591