The effect of temperature, humidity, precipitation and cloud coverage on the risk of COVID-19 infection in temperate regions of the USA—A case-crossover study

Observations based on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 early into the COVID-19 pandemic have suggested a reduced burden in tropical regions leading to the assumption of a dichotomy between cold and dry and wet and warm climates. Analyzing more than a whole year of COVID-19 infection data, this study intents...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PloS one 2022-09, Vol.17 (9), p.e0273511-e0273511
Main Authors: Jansson, Moritz K, Yamamoto, Shelby
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Analysis
Climate
Cloud cover
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Disease transmission
Earth Sciences
Engineering and Technology
Health risks
Humidity
Infections
Influenza
Medical research
Medicine and Health Sciences
Pandemics
Pathogens
Physical Sciences
Precipitation
Rain
Research and Analysis Methods
Risk management
Seasonal variations
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
Specific humidity
Temperature
Temperature effects
Tropical environment
Tropical environments
Viral diseases
Warm climates
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Summary:Observations based on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 early into the COVID-19 pandemic have suggested a reduced burden in tropical regions leading to the assumption of a dichotomy between cold and dry and wet and warm climates. Analyzing more than a whole year of COVID-19 infection data, this study intents to refine the understanding of meteorological variables (temperature, humidity, precipitation and cloud coverage) on COVID-19 transmission in settings that experience distinct seasonal changes. A time stratified case-crossover design was adopted with a conditional Poisson model in combination with a distributed lag nonlinear model to assess the short-term impact of mentioned meteorological factors on COVID-19 infections in five US study sites (New York City (NYC); Marion County, Indiana (MCI); Baltimore and Baltimore County, Maryland (BCM); Franklin County, Ohio (FCO); King County, Washington (KCW)). Higher-than-average temperatures were consistently associated with a decreased relative risk (RR) of COVID-19 infection in four study sites. At 20 degrees Celsius COVID-19 infection was associated with a relative risk of 0.35 (95%CI: 0.20-0.60) in NYC, 1.03 (95%CI:0.57-1.84) in MCI, 0.34 (95%CI: 0.20-0.57) in BCM, 0.52 (95%CI: 0.31-0.87) in FCO and 0.21 (95%CI: 0.10-0.44) in KCW. Higher-than-average humidity levels were associated with an increased relative risk of COVID-19 infection in four study sites. Relative to their respective means, at a humidity level of 15 g/kg (specific humidity) the RR was 5.83 (95%CI: 2.05-16.58) in BCM, at a humidity level of 10 g/kg the RR was 3.44 (95%CI: 1.95-6.01) in KCW. The results of this study suggest opposed effects for higher-than-average temperature and humidity concerning the risk of COVID-19 infection. While a distinct seasonal pattern of COVID-19 has not yet emerged, warm and humid weather should not be generally regarded as a time of reduced risk of COVID-19 infections.
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0273511