Diagnostic activity impacts lifetime risk of prostate cancer diagnosis more strongly than life expectancy

The main aim of the study was to determine the impact of diagnostic activity and life expectancy on the lifetime risk of a prostate cancer diagnosis. We used a state transition simulation model based on Swedish population-based data to simulate life trajectories for 2,000,000 men from age 40 to 100...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PloS one 2022-11, Vol.17 (11), p.e0277784-e0277784
Main Authors: Orrason, Andri Wilberg, Westerberg, Marcus, Albertsen, Peter, Styrke, Johan, Robinson, David, Garmo, Hans, Stattin, Pär
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adult
Age
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Biology and Life Sciences
Cancer
Cancer Epidemiology
Cancerepidemiologi
Cohort analysis
Computer Simulation
Diagnosis
Diagnostic systems
diagnsostic activity
Epidemiologi
Epidemiology
Evaluation
Health risks
Humans
lidetime risk
Life Expectancy
Life span
Male
Medical diagnosis
Medicine and Health Sciences
Metastasis
Middle Aged
Pelvis
People and places
Prostate
Prostate cancer
Prostatic Neoplasms - diagnosis
Prostatic Neoplasms - epidemiology
Research and Analysis Methods
Risk
Simulation
Trends
Urologi
Urology
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Summary:The main aim of the study was to determine the impact of diagnostic activity and life expectancy on the lifetime risk of a prostate cancer diagnosis. We used a state transition simulation model based on Swedish population-based data to simulate life trajectories for 2,000,000 men from age 40 to 100 in order to estimate the lifetime risk of a prostate cancer diagnosis. Risk estimates were determined by the level of diagnostic activity and estimated life expectancy. Higher exposure to diagnostic activity resulted in more prostate cancer diagnoses. This was especially true for men diagnosed with low or intermediate grade disease. Men exposed to high diagnostic compared to low diagnostic activity had a five-fold increased lifetime risk (22% vs. 5%) of being diagnosed with a low or intermediate-risk prostate cancer and half the risk of being diagnosed with a high-risk prostate cancer (6% vs. 13%). Men with a long life expectancy had a higher lifetime risk of a prostate cancer diagnosis both overall (21% vs. 15%) and in all risk categories when compared to men with a short life expectancy. The lifetime risk of a prostate cancer diagnosis is strongly influenced by diagnostic activity and to a lesser degree by life expectancy.
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0277784