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Variability in the discharge of the Mississippi River and tributaries from 1817 to 2020
There are conflicting predictions of climate change effects and landuse on the discharge of the Mississippi River-the largest river in North America. Are discharges becoming higher or lower, and if they did change, then when? To address these uncertainties I compiled a two-hundred-year long dataset...
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Published in: | PloS one 2022-12, Vol.17 (12), p.e0276513 |
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description | There are conflicting predictions of climate change effects and landuse on the discharge of the Mississippi River-the largest river in North America. Are discharges becoming higher or lower, and if they did change, then when? To address these uncertainties I compiled a two-hundred-year long dataset of the annual average, minimum, and maximum discharges at five stations draining the Mississippi River watershed: at Clinton, IA, Herman, MO, St. Louis, MO, Louisville, KY, and Vicksburg, MS. A spline/Lowess analysis tested for trends and inflection points. All three discharge metrics increased, and the minimum annual discharge increased faster than either the annual maximum discharge or annual average discharge. A regression analysis of variations in average discharges from 1950 to 2020 at these five locations demonstrates correlations to the air pressure differentials represented in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index for January, February and March. The longest data set, for the Mississippi River at Vicksburg, demonstrates a similar direct relationship with the NAO Index from 1826 to 1969. After 1969, however, the relationship between discharge and the NAO Index is insignificant even though the range of Index values overlap for the two intervals. A breakpoint and rise in discharge ca. 1970 is consistent with well-documented land cover and land use changes occurring then that resulted in reduced evapotranspiration as homogenous cropping systems were established, and a higher percent of precipitation was routed into groundwater and baseflow. The Bonnet Carré Spillway at New Orleans, LA, is being opened more frequently to reduce flood threats as the river's stage increasingly reaches the threshold for opening it. Significant water quality impairments in the coastal zone will appear or be sustained with these openings. These data may be useful for climate change assessments through modeling or synthetic assessments in combination with other data sets. |
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Are discharges becoming higher or lower, and if they did change, then when? To address these uncertainties I compiled a two-hundred-year long dataset of the annual average, minimum, and maximum discharges at five stations draining the Mississippi River watershed: at Clinton, IA, Herman, MO, St. Louis, MO, Louisville, KY, and Vicksburg, MS. A spline/Lowess analysis tested for trends and inflection points. All three discharge metrics increased, and the minimum annual discharge increased faster than either the annual maximum discharge or annual average discharge. A regression analysis of variations in average discharges from 1950 to 2020 at these five locations demonstrates correlations to the air pressure differentials represented in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index for January, February and March. The longest data set, for the Mississippi River at Vicksburg, demonstrates a similar direct relationship with the NAO Index from 1826 to 1969. After 1969, however, the relationship between discharge and the NAO Index is insignificant even though the range of Index values overlap for the two intervals. A breakpoint and rise in discharge ca. 1970 is consistent with well-documented land cover and land use changes occurring then that resulted in reduced evapotranspiration as homogenous cropping systems were established, and a higher percent of precipitation was routed into groundwater and baseflow. The Bonnet Carré Spillway at New Orleans, LA, is being opened more frequently to reduce flood threats as the river's stage increasingly reaches the threshold for opening it. Significant water quality impairments in the coastal zone will appear or be sustained with these openings. These data may be useful for climate change assessments through modeling or synthetic assessments in combination with other data sets.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1932-6203</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0276513</identifier><identifier>PMID: 36480558</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: Public Library of Science</publisher><subject>Assessments ; Climate change ; Climate models ; Climate prediction ; Climatic changes ; Coastal water quality ; Coastal zone ; Cropping systems ; Datasets ; Differentials ; Discharge ; Earth Sciences ; Ecology and Environmental Sciences ; Environmental assessment ; Evaluation ; Evapotranspiration ; Flood control ; Floods ; Groundwater ; Inflection points ; Influence ; Land cover ; Land use ; Management ; Mississippi ; New Orleans ; North America ; North Atlantic Oscillation ; People and places ; Physical Sciences ; Regression analysis ; Research and Analysis Methods ; Rivers ; Spillways ; Tributaries ; Water ; Water quality ; Watersheds</subject><ispartof>PloS one, 2022-12, Vol.17 (12), p.e0276513</ispartof><rights>Copyright: © 2022 R. Eugene Turner. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.</rights><rights>COPYRIGHT 2022 Public Library of Science</rights><rights>2022 R. Eugene Turner. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><rights>2022 R. Eugene Turner 2022 R. Eugene Turner</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c622t-99494243d4afba78af1c38447a1219f3b5649f563bdba3046481f601df3ba66e3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c622t-99494243d4afba78af1c38447a1219f3b5649f563bdba3046481f601df3ba66e3</cites><orcidid>0000-0003-0776-7506</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.proquest.com/docview/2748258781/fulltextPDF?pq-origsite=primo$$EPDF$$P50$$Gproquest$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.proquest.com/docview/2748258781?pq-origsite=primo$$EHTML$$P50$$Gproquest$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,727,780,784,885,25753,27924,27925,37012,44590,53791,53793,75126</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36480558$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><contributor>Song, Yougui</contributor><creatorcontrib>Turner, R Eugene</creatorcontrib><title>Variability in the discharge of the Mississippi River and tributaries from 1817 to 2020</title><title>PloS one</title><addtitle>PLoS One</addtitle><description>There are conflicting predictions of climate change effects and landuse on the discharge of the Mississippi River-the largest river in North America. Are discharges becoming higher or lower, and if they did change, then when? To address these uncertainties I compiled a two-hundred-year long dataset of the annual average, minimum, and maximum discharges at five stations draining the Mississippi River watershed: at Clinton, IA, Herman, MO, St. Louis, MO, Louisville, KY, and Vicksburg, MS. A spline/Lowess analysis tested for trends and inflection points. All three discharge metrics increased, and the minimum annual discharge increased faster than either the annual maximum discharge or annual average discharge. A regression analysis of variations in average discharges from 1950 to 2020 at these five locations demonstrates correlations to the air pressure differentials represented in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index for January, February and March. The longest data set, for the Mississippi River at Vicksburg, demonstrates a similar direct relationship with the NAO Index from 1826 to 1969. After 1969, however, the relationship between discharge and the NAO Index is insignificant even though the range of Index values overlap for the two intervals. A breakpoint and rise in discharge ca. 1970 is consistent with well-documented land cover and land use changes occurring then that resulted in reduced evapotranspiration as homogenous cropping systems were established, and a higher percent of precipitation was routed into groundwater and baseflow. The Bonnet Carré Spillway at New Orleans, LA, is being opened more frequently to reduce flood threats as the river's stage increasingly reaches the threshold for opening it. Significant water quality impairments in the coastal zone will appear or be sustained with these openings. These data may be useful for climate change assessments through modeling or synthetic assessments in combination with other data sets.</description><subject>Assessments</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Climate models</subject><subject>Climate prediction</subject><subject>Climatic changes</subject><subject>Coastal water quality</subject><subject>Coastal zone</subject><subject>Cropping systems</subject><subject>Datasets</subject><subject>Differentials</subject><subject>Discharge</subject><subject>Earth Sciences</subject><subject>Ecology and Environmental Sciences</subject><subject>Environmental assessment</subject><subject>Evaluation</subject><subject>Evapotranspiration</subject><subject>Flood control</subject><subject>Floods</subject><subject>Groundwater</subject><subject>Inflection points</subject><subject>Influence</subject><subject>Land cover</subject><subject>Land use</subject><subject>Management</subject><subject>Mississippi</subject><subject>New Orleans</subject><subject>North America</subject><subject>North Atlantic Oscillation</subject><subject>People and places</subject><subject>Physical Sciences</subject><subject>Regression analysis</subject><subject>Research and Analysis Methods</subject><subject>Rivers</subject><subject>Spillways</subject><subject>Tributaries</subject><subject>Water</subject><subject>Water 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in the discharge of the Mississippi River and tributaries from 1817 to 2020</title><author>Turner, R Eugene</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c622t-99494243d4afba78af1c38447a1219f3b5649f563bdba3046481f601df3ba66e3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2022</creationdate><topic>Assessments</topic><topic>Climate change</topic><topic>Climate models</topic><topic>Climate prediction</topic><topic>Climatic changes</topic><topic>Coastal water quality</topic><topic>Coastal zone</topic><topic>Cropping systems</topic><topic>Datasets</topic><topic>Differentials</topic><topic>Discharge</topic><topic>Earth Sciences</topic><topic>Ecology and Environmental Sciences</topic><topic>Environmental assessment</topic><topic>Evaluation</topic><topic>Evapotranspiration</topic><topic>Flood control</topic><topic>Floods</topic><topic>Groundwater</topic><topic>Inflection 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Are discharges becoming higher or lower, and if they did change, then when? To address these uncertainties I compiled a two-hundred-year long dataset of the annual average, minimum, and maximum discharges at five stations draining the Mississippi River watershed: at Clinton, IA, Herman, MO, St. Louis, MO, Louisville, KY, and Vicksburg, MS. A spline/Lowess analysis tested for trends and inflection points. All three discharge metrics increased, and the minimum annual discharge increased faster than either the annual maximum discharge or annual average discharge. A regression analysis of variations in average discharges from 1950 to 2020 at these five locations demonstrates correlations to the air pressure differentials represented in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index for January, February and March. The longest data set, for the Mississippi River at Vicksburg, demonstrates a similar direct relationship with the NAO Index from 1826 to 1969. After 1969, however, the relationship between discharge and the NAO Index is insignificant even though the range of Index values overlap for the two intervals. A breakpoint and rise in discharge ca. 1970 is consistent with well-documented land cover and land use changes occurring then that resulted in reduced evapotranspiration as homogenous cropping systems were established, and a higher percent of precipitation was routed into groundwater and baseflow. The Bonnet Carré Spillway at New Orleans, LA, is being opened more frequently to reduce flood threats as the river's stage increasingly reaches the threshold for opening it. Significant water quality impairments in the coastal zone will appear or be sustained with these openings. 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subjects | Assessments Climate change Climate models Climate prediction Climatic changes Coastal water quality Coastal zone Cropping systems Datasets Differentials Discharge Earth Sciences Ecology and Environmental Sciences Environmental assessment Evaluation Evapotranspiration Flood control Floods Groundwater Inflection points Influence Land cover Land use Management Mississippi New Orleans North America North Atlantic Oscillation People and places Physical Sciences Regression analysis Research and Analysis Methods Rivers Spillways Tributaries Water Water quality Watersheds |
title | Variability in the discharge of the Mississippi River and tributaries from 1817 to 2020 |
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