Causal implicatures from correlational statements

Correlation does not imply causation, but this does not necessarily stop people from drawing causal inferences from correlational statements. We show that people do in fact infer causality from statements of association, under minimal conditions. In Study 1, participants interpreted statements of th...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PloS one 2023-05, Vol.18 (5), p.e0286067-e0286067
Main Authors: Gershman, Samuel J, Ullman, Tomer D
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Analysis
Biology and Life Sciences
Causal inference
Causality
Correlation
Correlation (Statistics)
Daughters
Humans
Language
Linguistics
Medicine and Health Sciences
Methods
People and Places
Science Policy
Social Sciences
Structure
Variables
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Summary:Correlation does not imply causation, but this does not necessarily stop people from drawing causal inferences from correlational statements. We show that people do in fact infer causality from statements of association, under minimal conditions. In Study 1, participants interpreted statements of the form "X is associated with Y" to imply that Y causes X. In Studies 2 and 3, participants interpreted statements of the form "X is associated with an increased risk of Y" to imply that X causes Y. Thus, even the most orthodox correlational language can give rise to causal inferences.
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0286067