A simulation-based method to inform serosurvey design for estimating the force of infection using existing blood samples

The extent to which dengue virus has been circulating globally and especially in Africa is largely unknown. Testing available blood samples from previous cross-sectional serological surveys offers a convenient strategy to investigate past dengue infections, as such serosurveys provide the ideal data...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PLoS computational biology 2023-11, Vol.19 (11), p.e1011666
Main Authors: Vicco, Anna, McCormack, Clare P, Pedrique, Belen, Amuasi, John H, Awuah, Anthony Afum-Adjei, Obirikorang, Christian, Struck, Nicole S, Lorenz, Eva, May, Jürgen, Ribeiro, Isabela, Malavige, Gathsaurie Neelika, Donnelly, Christl A, Dorigatti, Ilaria
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Age composition
Age groups
Antibodies, Viral
Binomial distribution
Biology and Life Sciences
Blood
Cross-Sectional Studies
Dengue
Dengue fever
Disease transmission
Earth Sciences
Estimates
Ghana - epidemiology
Health risks
Humans
Infections
Medicine and Health Sciences
Pathogens
People and Places
Population
Research and Analysis Methods
Sample size
SARS-CoV-2
Seroepidemiologic Studies
Serological surveys
Serology
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
Simulation
Social Sciences
Surveillance
Vector-borne diseases
Viral diseases
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Summary:The extent to which dengue virus has been circulating globally and especially in Africa is largely unknown. Testing available blood samples from previous cross-sectional serological surveys offers a convenient strategy to investigate past dengue infections, as such serosurveys provide the ideal data to reconstruct the age-dependent immunity profile of the population and to estimate the average per-capita annual risk of infection: the force of infection (FOI), which is a fundamental measure of transmission intensity. In this study, we present a novel methodological approach to inform the size and age distribution of blood samples to test when samples are acquired from previous surveys. The method was used to inform SERODEN, a dengue seroprevalence survey which is currently being conducted in Ghana among other countries utilizing samples previously collected for a SARS-CoV-2 serosurvey. The method described in this paper can be employed to determine sample sizes and testing strategies for different diseases and transmission settings.
ISSN:1553-7358
1553-734X
1553-7358
DOI:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011666