Effects of climate variability on the spatio-temporal distribution of Dengue in Valle del Cauca, Colombia, from 2001 to 2019

• Published in: PloS one 2024-10, Vol.19 (10), p.e0311607
• Main Authors: Ortega-Lenis, Delia, Arango-Londoño, David, Hernández, Freddy, Moraga, Paula
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Bayes Theorem; Bayesian analysis; Binomial distribution; Biology and Life Sciences; Care and treatment; Climate; Climate Change; Climate effects; Climate variability; Colombia - epidemiology; Dengue; Dengue - epidemiology; Dengue - transmission; Dengue fever; Diagnosis; Disease transmission; Early warning systems; Earth Sciences; Ecology and Environmental Sciences; Economic factors; Eggs; Environmental aspects; Health aspects; Households; Humans; Humidity; Medicine and Health Sciences; Mosquitoes; Municipalities; People and places; Precipitation; Prevention; Public health; Relative humidity; Risk Factors; Socioeconomic factors; Socioeconomics; Spatial distribution; Spatio-Temporal Analysis; Temperature; Temporal distribution; Urban areas; Variability; Variables; Vector-borne diseases; Vectors (Biology); Warning systems
• ISSN: 1932-6203; 1932-6203
• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0311607

Dengue is a vector-borne disease that has increased over the past two decades, becoming a global public health emergency. The transmission of dengue is contingent upon various factors, among which climate variability plays a significant role. However, there remains substantial uncertainty regarding the underlying mechanisms. This study aims to investigate the spatial and temporal patterns of dengue risk and to quantify the associated risk factors in Valle del Cauca, Colombia, from 2001 to 2019. To achieve this, a spatio-temporal Bayesian hierarchical model was developed, integrating delayed and non-linear effects of climate variables, socio-economic factors, along with spatio-temporal random effects to account for unexplained variability. The results indicate that average temperature is positively associated with dengue risk 0-2 months later, showing a 35% increase in the risk. Similarly, high precipitation levels lead to increased risk approximately 2-3 months later, while relative humidity showed a constant risk within a 6 months-lag. These findings could be valuable for local health authorities interested in developing early warning systems to predict future risks in advance.