Regional and seasonal response of a West Nile virus vector to climate change

• Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS 2013-09, Vol.110 (39), p.15620-15625
• Main Authors: Morin, Cory W., Comrie, Andrew C.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Animal and plant ecology; Animal, plant and microbial ecology; Animals; Biological and medical sciences; Climate Change; Climate models; Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change; Culex - virology; Culex quinquefasciatus; Demecology; Disease transmission; Disease Vectors; Earth, ocean, space; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; Geography; Medically important nuisances and vectors, pests of stored products and materials: population survey and control; Meteorology; Modeling; Mortality; Mosquitoes; Mosquitos; Physical Sciences; Population dynamics; Precipitation; Protozoa. Invertebrata; Seasons; Summer; Survival analysis; Time Factors; United States - epidemiology; Vectors. Intermediate hosts; West Nile Fever - epidemiology; West Nile virus; West Nile virus - physiology
• ISSN: 0027-8424; 1091-6490
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1307135110

Climate change will affect the abundance and seasonality of West Nile virus (WNV) vectors, altering the risk of virus transmission to humans. Using downscaled general circulation model output, we calculate a WNV vector's response to climate change across the southern United States using process-based modeling. In the eastern United States, Culex quinquefasciatus response to projected climate change displays a latitudinal and elevational gradient. Projected summer population depressions as a result of increased immature mortality and habitat drying are most severe in the south and almost absent further north; extended spring and fall survival is ubiquitous. Much of California also exhibits a bimodal pattern. Projected onset of mosquito season is delayed in the southwestern United States because of extremely dry and hot spring and summers; however, increased temperature and late summer and fall rains extend the mosquito season. These results are unique in being a broad-scale calculation of the projected impacts of climate change on a WNV vector. The results show that, despite projected widespread future warming, the future seasonal response of C. quinquefasciatus populations across the southern United States will not be homogeneous, and will depend on specific combinations of local and regional conditions.