The Evaluation of Fibre Transfer Evidence in Forensic Science: A Case Study in Statistical Modelling

Frequently, when a crime is committed, fibres are left at the scene. This paper examines the modelling aspects of evaluating the evidential content of such fibres by using a Bayesian approach. Inferences are made via the likelihood ratio, derived from bivariate colour measurements. Modelling the dis...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Applied Statistics 1991-01, Vol.40 (3), p.461-476
Main Authors: Wakefield, J. C., Skene, A. M., Smith, A. F. M., Evett, I. W.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bayesian inference
Colors
Colour measurements
Density estimation
Dyes
Exact sciences and technology
Forensic science
Forensic sciences
General Interest Section
Kernel density estimation
Likelihood ratio
Mathematical independent variables
Mathematics
Modelling within‐garment variability
Parametric models
Probability and statistics
Ratios
Sciences and techniques of general use
Statistics
Wool
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Summary:Frequently, when a crime is committed, fibres are left at the scene. This paper examines the modelling aspects of evaluating the evidential content of such fibres by using a Bayesian approach. Inferences are made via the likelihood ratio, derived from bivariate colour measurements. Modelling the distribution of colour within a particular garment is discussed in detail. In addition, a large database allows an empirical prior distribution to be incorporated, utilizing kernel density estimation. Data from actual casework are analysed.
ISSN:0035-9254
1467-9876
DOI:10.2307/2347526