Long-Term Growth Scenarios

This paper presents the results from a new model for projecting growth of OECD and major non-OECD economies over the next 50 years as well as imbalances that arise. A baseline scenario assuming gradual structural reform and fiscal consolidation to stabilise government-debt-to GDP ratios is compared...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:OECD Economic Department Working Papers 2013-01 (1000), p.0_1
Main Authors: Johansson, Åsa, Guillemette, Yvan, Murtin, Fabrice, Turner, David, Nicoletti, Giuseppe, de Ia Maisonneuve, Christine, Bagnoli, Philip, Bousquet, Guillaume, Spinelle, Francesca
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Demographics
Economic growth
Economic reform
Forecasts
GDP
Global economy
Gross Domestic Product
Human capital
Interest rates
International
Labor force
Per capita
Productivity
Reforms
Standard of living
Studies
Technology adoption
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Summary:This paper presents the results from a new model for projecting growth of OECD and major non-OECD economies over the next 50 years as well as imbalances that arise. A baseline scenario assuming gradual structural reform and fiscal consolidation to stabilise government-debt-to GDP ratios is compared with variant scenarios assuming deeper policy reforms. One main finding is that growth of the non-OECD G20 countries will continue to outpace OECD countries, but the difference will narrow substantially over coming decades. In parallel, the next 50 years will see major changes in the composition of the world economy. In the absence of ambitious policy changes, global imbalances will emerge which could undermine growth. However, ambitious fiscal consolidation efforts and deep structural reforms can both raise long-run living standards and reduce the risks of major disruptions to growth by mitigating global imbalances. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]
ISSN:1815-1973