The selection of technology forecasting method using a multi-criteria interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy group decision making approach

• Published in: Computers & industrial engineering 2013-06, Vol.65 (2), p.277-285
• Main Authors: İntepe, Gizem, Bozdag, Erhan, Koc, Tufan
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: 3-D technology; 3D TV; Forecasting; Forecasting techniques; Fuzzy sets; Fuzzy TOPSIS; Interval valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets; Multiple criteria decision making; Studies; Technological planning; Technology forecasting; Television
• ISSN: 0360-8352; 1879-0550
• DOI: 10.1016/j.cie.2013.03.002

•This study proposes a model for the selection of technology forecasting technique.•Interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy numbers is used to obtain the ratings.•A technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution is proposed.•The proposed model was applied to 3D TV technology forecasting. Technological forecasting is a tool for organizations to develop their technology strategies. The quality of forecasting is extremely important for the accuracy of the results and in turn company future. Therefore a proper selection methodology of forecasting technique that considers the characteristics of technology and resources needed such as cost, time is essential. On the other hand, although many forecasting techniques are available, there is a high uncertainty in choosing the most appropriate technique among a set of available techniques. In this paper interval valued intuitionistic fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method is proposed for the solution of technological forecasting technique selection problem. The proposed method includes seven selection criteria and twelve forecasting technique alternatives. The methodology is applied for 3D TV technology. The results revealed that Fisher Pry method is found as the most appropriate method for forecasting since it has the highest closeness coefficient.