Editor's Introduction for Forecasting the 2013 German Elections

In the past 40 years an extensive literature has grown up around aggregate political economy models of elections, but few articles have focused on the German case. Initially, Kirchgässner (1977; 1991), developed vote-popularity (VP) functions, with the unemployment rate as the dominant economic vari...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PS, political science & politics political science & politics, 2013-07, Vol.46 (3), p.477-478
Main Author: Jérôme, Bruno
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Calculus
Elections
Peer Acceptance
Research Design
Spotlight
Unemployment
Voting
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Summary:In the past 40 years an extensive literature has grown up around aggregate political economy models of elections, but few articles have focused on the German case. Initially, Kirchgässner (1977; 1991), developed vote-popularity (VP) functions, with the unemployment rate as the dominant economic variable predicting the German ruling parties' performance. Thereafter, using vote functions (VF) from 1961 to 1994, Jérôme, Jérôme-Speziari, and Lewis-Beck (2001) tested the “yardstick” competition existing between French and German economic votes.
ISSN:1049-0965
1537-5935
DOI:10.1017/S1049096513000796