Comparison of greenhouse gas emission forecasts in Russia’s energy sector for 2010–2060

A comparative analysis of forecasts of the dynamics of greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector of the Russian Federation until 2060 is presented. The analysis has been fulfilled within recent years by groups of experts both from Russia and abroad. A database of 71 scenarios has been formed. Th...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Studies on Russian economic development 2014, Vol.25 (1), p.37-49
Main Authors: Bashmakov, I. A., Myshak, A. D.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Carbon
Comparative analysis
Economic development
Economic forecasts
Economic growth
Economic models
Economics
Economics and Finance
Emissions
Energy efficiency
Energy industry
Energy resources
Forecasting
GDP
Greenhouse effect
Greenhouse gases
Gross Domestic Product
Hypotheses
Industries and Interindustry Complexes
International Economics
Macroeconomics
Studies
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Summary:A comparative analysis of forecasts of the dynamics of greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector of the Russian Federation until 2060 is presented. The analysis has been fulfilled within recent years by groups of experts both from Russia and abroad. A database of 71 scenarios has been formed. The “range of disconformity” of the forecasts and the evolution of the forecasting estimates were studied which permitted to evaluate the possibilities of emissions limitation and to find out the configuration of the “solution space”: different combinations of improvement of the energy efficiency, development of low-carbon and carbonless technologies, as well as to reveal the character of the feedback between measures of the emission limitation policy and economic growth.
ISSN:1075-7007
1531-8664
DOI:10.1134/S1075700714010031