A refined parametric model for short term load forecasting

We present a refined parametric model for forecasting electricity demand which performed particularly well in the recent Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom 2012). We begin by motivating and presenting a simple parametric model, treating the electricity demand as a function of the temperat...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:International journal of forecasting 2014-04, Vol.30 (2), p.364-368
Main Authors: Charlton, Nathaniel, Singleton, Colin
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Combining forecasts
Demand
Demand forecasting
Electricity
Energy consumption
Forecasting competitions
Forecasting techniques
Mathematical models
Parameter estimation
Regression
Studies
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Summary:We present a refined parametric model for forecasting electricity demand which performed particularly well in the recent Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom 2012). We begin by motivating and presenting a simple parametric model, treating the electricity demand as a function of the temperature and day of the data. We then set out a series of refinements of the model, explaining the rationale for each, and using the competition scores to demonstrate that each successive refinement step increases the accuracy of the model’s predictions. These refinements include combining models from multiple weather stations, removing outliers from the historical data, and special treatments of public holidays.
ISSN:0169-2070
1872-8200
DOI:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.07.003