GEFCom2012: Electric load forecasting and backcasting with semi-parametric models

We sum up the methodology of the team tololo for the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012: Load Forecasting. Our strategy consisted of a temporal multi-scale model that combines three components. The first component was a long term trend estimated by means of non-parametric smoothing. The seco...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:International journal of forecasting 2014-04, Vol.30 (2), p.375-381
Main Authors: Nedellec, Raphael, Cugliari, Jairo, Goude, Yannig
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Demand
Demand forecasting
Estimating techniques
Forecasting competitions
Mathematical models
Multivariate time series
Nonlinear time series
Parameter estimation
Power supply
Regression
Studies
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Summary:We sum up the methodology of the team tololo for the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012: Load Forecasting. Our strategy consisted of a temporal multi-scale model that combines three components. The first component was a long term trend estimated by means of non-parametric smoothing. The second was a medium term component describing the sensitivity of the electricity demand to the temperature at each time step. We use a generalized additive model to fit this component, using calendar information as well. Finally, a short term component models local behaviours. As the factors that drive this component are unknown, we use a random forest model to estimate it.
ISSN:0169-2070
1872-8200
DOI:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.07.004