Judgmental Forecasting: Cognitive Reflection and Decision Speed

This research analyzes how individual differences affect performance in judgmental time‐series forecasting. Decision makers with the ability to balance intuitive judgment with cognitive deliberation, as measured by the cognitive reflection test, tend to have lower forecast errors. This relationship...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Production and operations management 2014-07, Vol.23 (7), p.1146-1160
Main Authors: Moritz, Brent, Siemsen, Enno, Kremer, Mirko
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
behavioral operations
cognitive reflection
Decision making models
decision speed
forecasting
Forecasting techniques
Manipulation
Measurement errors
Studies
Time series
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Summary:This research analyzes how individual differences affect performance in judgmental time‐series forecasting. Decision makers with the ability to balance intuitive judgment with cognitive deliberation, as measured by the cognitive reflection test, tend to have lower forecast errors. This relationship holds when controlling for intelligence. Furthermore, forecast errors increase for very fast or very slow decisions. We provide evidence that forecast performance can be improved by manipulating decision speed.
ISSN:1059-1478
1937-5956
DOI:10.1111/poms.12105