Hydrological assessment of proposed reservoirs in the Sonora River Basin, Mexico, under historical and future climate scenarios

A semi-distributed hydrological model and reservoir optimization algorithm are used to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on existing and proposed reservoirs in the Sonora River Basin, Mexico. Inter-annual climatic variability, a bimodal precipitation regime and climate change uncertai...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Hydrological sciences journal 2015-01, Vol.60 (1), p.50-66
Main Authors: Robles-Morua, A, Che, D, Mayer, A.S, Vivoni, E.R
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
aide à la décision
algorithms
changement climatique
climate change
decision support
emissions
flood control
Freshwater
General Circulation Models
hydrological modelling
hydrology
infrastructure
infrastructures hydraulique
lutte contre les inondations
managers
modélisation hydrologique
monsoon season
Nord-Ouest du Mexique
northwest Mexico
semiarid zones
water infrastructure
water management
water supply
watersheds
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Summary:A semi-distributed hydrological model and reservoir optimization algorithm are used to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on existing and proposed reservoirs in the Sonora River Basin, Mexico. Inter-annual climatic variability, a bimodal precipitation regime and climate change uncertainties present challenges to water resource management in the region. Hydrological assessments are conducted for three meteorological products during a historical period and a future climate change scenario. Historical (1990–2000) and future (2031–2040) projections were derived from a mesoscale model forced with boundary conditions from a general circulation model under a high emissions scenario. The results reveal significantly higher precipitation, reservoir inflows, elevations and releases in the future relative to historical simulations. Furthermore, hydrological seasonality might be altered with a shift toward earlier water supply during the North American monsoon. The proposed infrastructure would have a limited ability to ameliorate future conditions, with more benefits in a tributary with lower flood hazard. These projections of the impacts of climate change and its interaction with infrastructure should be of interest to water resources managers in arid and semi-arid regions. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis
ISSN:2150-3435
0262-6667
2150-3435
DOI:10.1080/02626667.2013.878462