System dynamics modelling to support policy analysis for sustainable health care

System dynamics (SD) is an established simulation methodology used to explore the behaviour of social systems over time. The field has addressed challenging sustainability problems in fisheries, urban planning and environmental resource management. It has also been successfully applied to health car...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of simulation : JOS 2015-05, Vol.9 (2), p.129-139
Main Authors: Lyons, G J, Duggan, J
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Business and Management
Chronic illnesses
Disease
Feedback
Health care delivery
health-care ecosystem
Information Systems and Communication Service
Infrastructure
Operations Research/Decision Theory
Original Article
Population
Primary care
Public health
Public policy
Simulation
Simulation and Modeling
Social sustainability
socio-economic sustainability
Sustainability
system dynamics simulation
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Summary:System dynamics (SD) is an established simulation methodology used to explore the behaviour of social systems over time. The field has addressed challenging sustainability problems in fisheries, urban planning and environmental resource management. It has also been successfully applied to health care, in chronic disease modelling and workforce planning. This paper presents SD models of health-care sustainability, and illustrates two complementary applications of SD: (i) continuous simulation of health-care infrastructure adequacy; and (ii) conceptual modelling of the wider public policy context for health-care sustainability. The infrastructure model provides a simulator for evaluating impacts of population growth and ageing, as well as assessing the likely effects of policy interventions on system sustainability. This model is validated using empirical data from Ireland's public health service, and its practical application for sustainability analysis is illustrated. Our conceptual endogenous SD model explores a wider system boundary and public policy interdependencies that impact sustainability outcomes.
ISSN:1747-7778
1747-7786
DOI:10.1057/jos.2014.15