Sovereign credit ratings in the European Union: A model-based fiscal analysis

We present a model-based measure of sovereign credit ratings derived solely from the fiscal position of a country: a forecast of its future debt liabilities, and its potential to use fiscal policy to repay these. We use this measure to calculate credit ratings for 14 European countries over the peri...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:European economic review 2015-08, Vol.78, p.220-247
Main Authors: Polito, Vito, Wickens, Michael
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Credit ratings
Credit risk
Default probability
Economic crisis
Economic forecasts
Economic models
Fiscal limits
Fiscal policy
Rating services
Sovereign debt
Sovereign risk
Studies
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:We present a model-based measure of sovereign credit ratings derived solely from the fiscal position of a country: a forecast of its future debt liabilities, and its potential to use fiscal policy to repay these. We use this measure to calculate credit ratings for 14 European countries over the period 1995–2012. This measure identifies a European sovereign debt crisis almost two years before the official ratings of the credit rating agencies. •New way of constructing sovereign credit ratings based on fiscal stance.•Easy to calculate and transparent to interpret unlike official ratings.•Compares forecasted debt liabilities with ability to repay.•Applied to 14 EU countries for the period 1995–2012.•Identifies a European debt crisis two years before the official ratings.
ISSN:0014-2921
1873-572X
DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.05.009