Elementary modelling and behavioural analysis for emergency evacuations using social media

•We use a behavioural approach to explore emergency evacuations using Social Media.•We provide quantitative thresholds for complex model-based intervention problems.•We model individual behaviour by deriving optimal contrarian strategies.•We provide an algorithm that enables facilitators to update t...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:European journal of operational research 2016-03, Vol.249 (3), p.1014-1023
Main Authors: Fry, John, Binner, Jane M.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Algorithms
Bayesian analysis
Behavioural OR
Decision analysis
Emergency preparedness
Evacuations & rescues
Humanitarian logistics
Modelling
OR in disaster relief
Quantitative psychology
Social networks
Studies
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:•We use a behavioural approach to explore emergency evacuations using Social Media.•We provide quantitative thresholds for complex model-based intervention problems.•We model individual behaviour by deriving optimal contrarian strategies.•We provide an algorithm that enables facilitators to update the optimal network allocation online. Social media usage in evacuations and emergency management represents a rapidly expanding field of study. Our paper thus provides quantitative insight into a serious practical problem. Within this context a behavioural approach is key. We discuss when facilitators should consider model-based interventions amid further implications for disaster communication and emergency management. We model the behaviour of individual people by deriving optimal contrarian strategies. We formulate a Bayesian algorithm which enables the optimal evacuation to be conducted sequentially under worsening conditions.
ISSN:0377-2217
1872-6860
DOI:10.1016/j.ejor.2015.05.049