Habit Formation in Voting: Evidence from Rainy Elections

We estimate habit formation in voting—the effect of past on current turnout—by exploiting transitory voting cost shocks. Using county-level data on US presidential elections from 1952–2012, we find that rainfall on current and past election days reduces voter turnout. Our estimates imply that a 1-po...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:American economic journal. Applied economics 2016-10, Vol.8 (4), p.160-188
Main Authors: Fujiwara, Thomas, Meng, Kyle, Vogl, Tom
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Costs
Economics
Election results
Estimates
Presidential elections
Rain
Trends
Voter behavior
Voters
Voting rights
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Summary:We estimate habit formation in voting—the effect of past on current turnout—by exploiting transitory voting cost shocks. Using county-level data on US presidential elections from 1952–2012, we find that rainfall on current and past election days reduces voter turnout. Our estimates imply that a 1-point decrease in past turnout lowers current turnout by 0.6–1.0 points. Further analyses suggest that habit formation operates by reinforcing the direct consumption value of voting and that our estimates may be amplified by social spillovers.
ISSN:1945-7782
1945-7790
DOI:10.1257/app.20140533