Revisiting The 2007 Surge In Iraq 1

The 2007 surge in Iraq is considered one of the most significant military events in recent history given that it coincided with a marked decrease in violent attacks. However, revisiting "significant activity" (SIGACT) data reveals that violence had generally peaked before the surge. This s...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of military and strategic studies 2016-01, Vol.17 (3), p.37
Main Authors: Minkov, Anton, Tikuisis, Peter
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Efficacy
Military history
Violence
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:The 2007 surge in Iraq is considered one of the most significant military events in recent history given that it coincided with a marked decrease in violent attacks. However, revisiting "significant activity" (SIGACT) data reveals that violence had generally peaked before the surge. This study presents also an examination of other factors that might explain the earlier decline in violence, before the surge was even announced. It is difficult to pinpoint the trends that were most prominent, but they all likely contributed to a shift in the momentum of the security situation in the fall of 2006, before the surge was even announced. Thus, our analysis suggests that the surge was an unnecessary gambit. This paper aims to caution strategic policy decision-makers against misinterpreting the efficacy of surge capability in a complex and dynamically changing security situation.
ISSN:1488-559X
1488-559X