Warming of Central European lakes and their response to the 1980s climate regime shift

• Published in: Climatic change 2017-06, Vol.142 (3-4), p.505-520
• Main Authors: Woolway, R. Iestyn, Dokulil, Martin T., Marszelewski, Wlodzimierz, Schmid, Martin, Bouffard, Damien, Merchant, Christopher J.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Air temperature; Aquatic ecosystems; Atmospheric Sciences; Climate; Climate change; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts; Climatic change influences on lake temperature; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Ecosystems; Global warming; Lakes; Seasonal variation; Seasonal variations; Surface temperature; Surface water; Temperature; Temperature measurement; Water quality; Water temperature; Weather stations
• ISSN: 0165-0009; 1573-1480
• DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1966-4

Lake surface water temperatures (LSWTs) are sensitive to atmospheric warming and have previously been shown to respond to regional changes in the climate. Using a combination of in situ and simulated surface temperatures from 20 Central European lakes, with data spanning between 50 and ∼100 years, we investigate the long-term increase in annually averaged LSWT. We demonstrate that Central European lakes are warming most in spring and experience a seasonal variation in LSWT trends. We calculate significant LSWT warming during the past few decades and illustrate, using a sequential t test analysis of regime shifts, a substantial increase in annually averaged LSWT during the late 1980s, in response to an abrupt shift in the climate. Surface air temperature measurements from 122 meteorological stations situated throughout Central Europe demonstrate similar increases at this time. Climatic modification of LSWT has numerous consequences for water quality and lake ecosystems. Quantifying the response of LSWT increase to large-scale and abrupt climatic shifts is essential to understand how lakes will respond in the future.