Mapping inundation probability due to increasing sea level rise along El Puerto de Santa María (SW Spain)

Global sea levels have risen through the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. This rise will almost certainly continue and probably accelerate during the rest of the twenty-first century, albeit there is strong disagreement about the range of future sea level rise due to uncertainties regarding sce...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Natural hazards (Dordrecht) 2017-06, Vol.87 (2), p.581-598
Main Authors: Fraile-Jurado, Pablo, Álvarez-Francoso, José I., Guisado-Pintado, Emilia, Sánchez-Carnero, Noela, Ojeda-Zújar, José, Leatherman, Stephen P.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Civil Engineering
Coastal environments
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Environmental Management
Geophysics/Geodesy
Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences
Global sea level
Greenhouse gases
High tide
Hydrogeology
Mapping
Natural Hazards
Original Paper
Probabilistic methods
Probability theory
Sea level
Sea level rise
Spatial distribution
Tidal flooding
Tides
Urban areas
Wetlands
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Summary:Global sea levels have risen through the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. This rise will almost certainly continue and probably accelerate during the rest of the twenty-first century, albeit there is strong disagreement about the range of future sea level rise due to uncertainties regarding scenarios and emission of greenhouse gasses. Although the impacts of sea level rise are diverse, inundation during high tides is one of the most obvious and immediate consequences. A probabilistic methodology for mapping the inundation hazard because of sea level rise has been applied to the coast of El Puerto de Santa María in the province of Cádiz in southwest Spain. This methodology involves a step forward since represents the full range of probabilities, associated with each scenario of sea level rise considered, and thus offers a more realistic view of the probability of inundation in each area. Results show large differences in the spatial distribution of probable inundation in urban areas and wetlands leading to different consequences for management actions.
ISSN:0921-030X
1573-0840
DOI:10.1007/s11069-017-2782-x