DOĞAL İŞSİZLİK ORANI MI YOKSA; İŞSİZLİK HİSTERİSİ Mİ?: OECD ÜLKELERİ İÇİN YENİ NESİL PANEL BİRİM KÖK TESTLERİNDEN KANITLAR (1980-2015)

• Published in: Sosyal Ekonomik Arastırmalar Dergisi 2017-04, Vol.17 (33), p.1-18
• Main Authors: YALÇINKAYA, Ömer, KAYA, Vedat
• Format: Article
• Language: eng ; tur
• Subjects: Doğal İşsizlik Oranı; Economic conditions; Economic theory; Hypotheses; Inflation; İşsizlik Histerisi; OECD Ülkeleri; Phillips curve; Rates; Studies; Unemployment; Yeni Nesil Panel Birim Kök Testleri
• ISSN: 2148-3043; 1303-8370; 2148-3043
• DOI: 10.30976/susead.327631

Nowadays, the dynamics of the unemployment rate are mostly assessed through the natural unemployment rate and the unemployment hysteresis hypotheses in contrary to the Keynesian approach which explains the relationship between inflation and unemployment rate with the Phillips Curve, In this study, it is examined which long term unemployment rates can be explained by the natural unemployment or the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis with new generation panel unit root tests taking into account cross-sectional dependence by moving from data the 1980-2015 period for the 28 OECD member countries. Moreover it is separately researched that the stability of the unemployment rate series for overall the panel and each country constituent the panel with new generation panel unit root tests which are consider structural breaks and which aren't in these countries, The findings obtained from the research; in large parts of the country, it was determined that the panel unit root tests which do not takes structural breaks support to the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis and the panel unit root tests which take structural breaks into support to the natural unemployment rate hypothesis. This situation reveals significant macroeconomic shocks have taken place in the mentioned countries for the period covered but that the effects of these shocks on the unemployment rate aren't permanent.