Comparison of TRMM-based flood indices for Gaziantep, Turkey

• Published in: Natural hazards (Dordrecht) 2017-09, Vol.88 (2), p.821-834
• Main Authors: Dönmez, Senayi, Tekeli, Ahmet Emre
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Arid regions; Arid zones; Atmospheric precipitations; Civil Engineering; Climatology; Comparative studies; Death; Disasters; Distribution functions; Diurnal variations; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Environmental Management; Flash flooding; Flash floods; Flood damage; Flood forecasting; Flood predictions; Floods; Floodwater; Geophysics/Geodesy; Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences; Global precipitation; Hydrogeology; Mathematical analysis; Measurement; Methods; Missions; Monthly precipitation; Natural disasters; Natural Hazards; Original Paper; Precipitation; Property damage; Rain; Rainfall; Remediation; Response time; Risk assessment; Satellites; Semiarid lands; Tropical climate; Tropical rainfall; Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM); Weather forecasting
• ISSN: 0921-030X; 1573-0840
• DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2892-5

Floods are the most common natural disasters threatening the welfare of humanity. Gaziantep, a city located in a semi-arid region of Turkey, is occasionally flooded, and in May 2014, a flood not only caused property damage, but also resulted in the death of a lady who became trapped in flood waters. The fatality and property damage of flash floods arise from the limited response time for remediation. Despite improvements in numerical weather predictions, forecasting flash floods is not easy. Due to its frequent observations, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) real-time (RT) 3B42RT data are tested for Gaziantep flood predictions in this study. During TRMM era, six floods occurred in Gaziantep. Three-hourly 3B42RT data covering the 2000- to 2014-year period indicated high rain rates during months in which floods were observed. Also daily variation of rainfall was well represented. High-intensity rain (HIR), cumulative distribution functions (CDF) and Gaziantep Flood Index (GAFI) indices are developed for flood characterization. HIR, calculated as 10 mm/h, detected October and December of 2010 floods. CDFs with 99, 98.5, 95 and 91.3% indicated 4 floods occurred in August 2005, June 2007, October 2010 and December 2010, respectively. GAFI was able to detect 4 out of 6 occurrences (August 2005, June 2007, October 2010 and December 2010) as values ranging from 1 to 2.63 are selected for monthly precipitation. In the missed occurrence, 3B42RT did not indicate any rainfall. Although only rain rates are used in flood characterization, the results are promising, and the simplicity of the methodology favors its usage. Also, methodology can easily be implemented to TRMM following missions such as Global Precipitation Measurement Mission.