Model prediction of biome‐specific global soil respiration from 1960 to 2012

• Published in: Earth's future 2017-07, Vol.5 (7), p.715-729
• Main Authors: Zhao, Zhengyong, Peng, Changhui, Yang, Qi, Meng, Fan‐Rui, Song, Xinzhang, Chen, Shutao, Epule, Terence Epule, Li, Peng, Zhu, Qiuan
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Agricultural land; Annual precipitation; Annual temperatures; artificial neural network; Artificial neural networks; biome; Boreal forests; Carbon; Carbon cycle; Climate; Climate change; Ecosystems; global change; Global climate; Grasslands; Mean annual precipitation; Neural networks; Precipitation; Predictions; Respiration; Soil dynamics; Soil respiration; Soils; temperature anomaly; Temperature effects; Tundra
• ISSN: 2328-4277; 2328-4277
• DOI: 10.1002/2016EF000480

Biome‐specific soil respiration (Rs) has important yet different roles in both the carbon cycle and climate change from regional to global scales. To date, no comparable studies related to global biome‐specific Rs have been conducted applying comprehensive global Rs databases. The goal of this study was to develop artificial neural network (ANN) models capable of spatially estimating global Rs and to evaluate the effects of interannual climate variations on 10 major biomes. We used 1976 annual Rs field records extracted from global Rs literature to train and test the ANN models. We determined that the best ANN model for predicting biome‐specific global annual Rs was the one that applied mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), and biome type as inputs (r2 = 0.60). The ANN models reported an average global Rs of 93.3 ± 6.1 Pg C yr−1 from 1960 to 2012 and an increasing trend in average global annual Rs of 0.04 Pg C yr−1. Estimated annual Rs increased with increases in MAT and MAP in cropland, boreal forest, grassland, shrubland, and wetland biomes. Additionally, estimated annual Rs decreased with increases in MAT and increased with increases in MAP in desert and tundra biomes, and only significantly decreased with increases in MAT (r2 = 0.87) in the savannah biome. The developed biome‐specific global Rs database for global land and soil carbon models will aid in understanding the mechanisms underlying variations in soil carbon dynamics and in quantifying uncertainty in the global soil carbon cycle. Key Points Predict biome‐specific global soil respiration from 1960 to 2012 using an artificial neural network model Prediction determined an average global soil respiration of 93.3 ± 6.1 Pg C yr−1 and an increasing trend of 0.04 Pg C yr−1 The 10 biome‐specific soil respiration estimates made it possible to trace different responses to global climate change in each biome