Global pattern of the international fossil fuel trade: The evolution of communities

• Published in: Energy (Oxford) 2017-03, Vol.123, p.260-270
• Main Authors: Zhong, Weiqiong, An, Haizhong, Shen, Lei, Dai, Tao, Fang, Wei, Gao, Xiangyun, Dong, Di
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Clustering; Clusters; Communities; Complex network; Crude oil; Emergy; Energy consumption; Evolution; Fossil fuel; Fossil fuels; International trade; Natural gas; Staphylococcal enterotoxin J
• ISSN: 0360-5442; 1873-6785
• DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2017.02.033

In the international trade of fossil fuel, countries are clustering into communities. The evolution of the communities can reflect the underlying trade pattern. This paper provides a new perspective in analyzing the global pattern of international fossil fuel trade by quantitatively analyze the evolution of the communities. Emergy transformity are used to unify the three different fuels into the same unit seJ. This paper creates network models of fossil fuel as well as coal, crude oil, and natural gas and detected the clustering of the countries by an algorithm. Three types of Normalized Mutual Information are designed to measure characteristics of the evolution of the communities. A matrix is also designed to show the flows between each two communities. This study finds that the natural gas trade network is the most partitioned and the most stable. In 2013, natural gas exceeded crude oil had the highest similarity with the integrated fossil fuel trade pattern. 2012 was a turning point. The trade blocs and organizations play important roles. However, their effects are limited. The geographical factor is reinforced and the roles of the USA and Russia are becoming more important. Clusters containing Asia Pacific countries are less stable. •Natural gas is more limited to regional trade and is becoming more crucial.•Substitute relationship between crude oil and coal is revealed in the pattern.•Communities are deviating and 2012 is a turning point in the evolution.•Trade blocs and organizations play important roles, but their effects are limited.•The geographical factor is reinforced.