How to enhance the future use of energy policy simulation models through ex post validation

• Published in: Energy (Oxford) 2017-02, Vol.120, p.58-66
• Main Author: Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Carbon dioxide; CO2 emissions; Computer simulation; Electric industries; Emissions; Energy; Energy consumption; Energy policy; Environmental assessment; Ex post validation; IPPs; Pakistan; Predictions; Simulation; System dynamics; Three dimensional models
• ISSN: 0360-5442; 1873-6785
• DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.12.095

Although simulation and modeling in general and system dynamics models in particular has long served the energy policy domain, ex post validation of these energy policy models is rarely addressed. In fact, ex post validation is a valuable area of research because it offers modelers a chance to enhance the future use of their simulation models by validating them against the field data. This paper contributes by presenting (i) a system dynamics simulation model, which was developed and used to do a three dimensional, socio-economical and environmental long-term assessment of Pakistan's energy policy in 1999, (ii) a systematic analysis of the 15-years old predictive scenarios produced by a system dynamics simulation model through ex post validation. How did the model predictions compare with the actual data? We report that the ongoing crisis of the electricity sector of Pakistan is unfolding, as the model-based scenarios had projected. •Argues that increased use of energy policy models is dependent on their credibility validation.•An ex post validation process is presented as a solution to build confidence in models.•A unique system dynamics model, MDESRAP, is presented.•The root mean square percentage error and Thiel's inequality statistics are applied.•The dynamic model, MDESRAP, is presented as an ex ante and ex post validated model.