The impact of patch forwarding on the prevalence of computer virus: A theoretical assessment approach

• Published in: Applied Mathematical Modelling 2017-03, Vol.43, p.110-125
• Main Authors: Yang, Lu-Xing, Yang, Xiaofan, Wu, Yingbo
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Computer networks; Computer virus; Computer viruses; Effects; Epidemics; Equilibrium; Global stability; Influence; Malware; Mathematical models; Node-level epidemic model; Software upgrading; Spectral radius; Stability criteria; Virus patch
• ISSN: 0307-904X; 1088-8691; 0307-904X
• DOI: 10.1016/j.apm.2016.10.028

•We propose a node-level SIPS model capturing patch forwarding and virus spreading.•We establish criteria for the existence and stability of potential equilibria.•The influences of some key factors on the prevalence of virus are revealed.•Several strategies of containing electronic infections are recommended. Virus patches can be disseminated rapidly through computer networks and take effect as soon as they have been installed, which significantly enhances their virus-containing capability. This paper aims to theoretically assess the impact of patch forwarding on the prevalence of computer virus. For that purpose, a new malware epidemic model, which takes into full account the influence of patch forwarding, is proposed. The dynamics of the model is revealed. Specifically, besides the permanent susceptible equilibrium, this model may admit an infected or a patched or a mixed equilibrium. Criteria for the global stability of the four equilibria are given, respectively, accompanied with numerical examples. The obtained results show that the spectral radii of the patch-forwarding network and the virus-spreading network both have a marked impact on the prevalence of computer virus. The influence of some key factors on the prevalence of virus is also revealed. Based on these findings, some strategies of containing electronic virus are recommended.