Susceptibility of contrail ice crystal numbers to aircraft soot particle emissions

We develop an idealized, physically based model describing combined effects of ice nucleation and sublimation on ice crystal number during persistent contrail formation. Our study represents the first effort to predict ice numbers at the point where contrails transition into contrail cirrus—several...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical research letters 2017-08, Vol.44 (15), p.8037-8046
Main Authors: Kärcher, B., Voigt, C.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Aerospace engines
Airborne sensing
Aircraft
Aircraft components
Atmospheric models
Aviation
Biofuels
Biomass
Blending
Climate
Climate effects
Climate models
Condensation
Connecting
Contrail effects
Contrail formation
Contrails
Crystals
Efficiency
Emissions
Engines
formation
Frameworks
Fuels
Gas turbine engines
Ice
Ice crystals
Ice formation
Ice nucleation
Jet exhaust
Large-scale models
Mitigation
Nucleation
Parameterization
Particle size distribution
Plumes
Predictions
Probability distribution functions
Scale models
Size distribution
Soot
Sublimation
Supersaturation
Water content
Water vapor
Water vapour
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Summary:We develop an idealized, physically based model describing combined effects of ice nucleation and sublimation on ice crystal number during persistent contrail formation. Our study represents the first effort to predict ice numbers at the point where contrails transition into contrail cirrus—several minutes past formation—by connecting them to aircraft soot particle emissions and atmospheric supersaturation with respect to ice. Results averaged over an observed exponential distribution of ice supersaturation (mean value 15%) indicate that large reductions in soot particle numbers are needed to lower contrail ice crystal numbers significantly for soot emission indices around 1015 (kg fuel)−1, because reductions in nucleated ice number are partially compensated by sublimation losses. Variations in soot particle (−50%) and water vapor (+10%) emission indices at threefold lower soot emissions resulting from biofuel blending cause ice crystal numbers to change by −35% and
ISSN:0094-8276
1944-8007
DOI:10.1002/2017GL074949